980
FXUS64 KOHX 300740
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
240 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Radar this morning shows widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms popping up along and north of I-40. This activity is
occurring ahead of a cold front currently across the Midwest that
will sink southward later today and tonight. A very humid airmass
is in place across the midstate this morning with dewpoints in
the 70s to near 80, so anticipating additional scattered showers
and storms to bubble up through the morning mainly over our
northern half. By midday into the afternoon, more widespread
showers and storms are expected to develop along and south of
I-40 per the HRRR model, before all activity moves south of the
area this evening thanks to the incoming front. Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE values peaking near 2000 J/Kg in our south
this afternoon with very high PWAT values well over 2 inches.
Therefore, even though we are not outlooked by SPC, some of the
storms this afternoon could get strong with damaging wet
microburst winds possible.

Precipitation and associated cloud cover today will keep
temperatures down considerably from yesterday with highs only in
the 80s to low 90s. Subsequently, heat index values look to stay
well below our widespread 105+ criteria except perhaps in our
southwest counties - so I`ve trimmed the north and east sides of
the Heat Advisory accordingly in coordination with MEG and HUN.
Regardless, will still be hot and very humid throughout Middle
Tennessee today. Much drier and cooler air will filter into the
region tonight with dewpoints falling into the 50s, so
temperatures will see a dramatic change from the past few nights
with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Monday and Monday night both look fantastic thanks to the cool
and dry airmass arriving from the north, with temperatures running
well below normal for the first part of July. Highs are only
expected to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday, with lows
once again dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Unfortunately
this brief cooldown will be shortlived as an H5 ridge centered
over the Arklatex builds eastward into the Tennessee Valley, with
the heat and a gradual return of deeper low level moisture
arriving for Tuesday. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above Monday`s
readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with lows Tuesday night in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

The upper ridge will remain in place for Wednesday before shifting
south of the state the rest of the week as the upper level jet
stream sinks southward into the Midwest. This pattern will favor
continued heat and humidity through the extended forecast but not
as hot as we have seen the past couple of weeks, with highs
generally in the low to mid 90s. There will also be a notable
increase in rain chances, with chance to likely pops from
Thursday through Saturday. By Sunday, another weak cold front is
currently indicated by 00Z guidance to move through the region,
which should lower or briefly stop our rain chances towards the
end of the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the most part VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
A cold front is trying to work its way through the mid south and
Tennessee overnight and into the day on Sunday. It is summertime
and cold fronts tend to loose umph this time of year. Some TS may
be possible this morning/afternoon with this front. Confidence is
not all that great so indicated the best time with P6SM -SHRA/VCTS.
Wanted to try and give the best indication for time as 06Z TAFs
tend to be utilized for planning purposed for the day. The only
way conditions won/t stay VFR at a TAF site is if a thunderstorms
passes directly over a terminal. In this case the storms should
move in such that they won/t be long lived.

Winds will be NW and swing around to N with the weak frontal
passage. High resolution models are indicating some gusty winds
after sunset /after 01/00Z/. Haven/t gone as gusty as models
indicate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  63  85  63 /  60   0   0   0
Clarksville    88  60  82  60 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     87  57  80  57 /  70  20   0   0
Columbia       92  62  85  60 /  70  10   0   0
Cookeville     87  59  79  59 /  70  20   0   0
Jamestown      85  58  78  57 /  70  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   92  62  83  60 /  70  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   92  62  85  60 /  70  10   0   0
Waverly        89  61  81  61 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Bedford-Giles-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Wayne.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....12