Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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528 FXUS64 KOHX 162336 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 636 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over Middle Tn. For some, a welcomed break from the past several days of rain, but for others, still wishing for some rain that never arrived. Partly cloudy to clear skies will be the headline with high temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon. Much of the same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected. Highs look to only reach the upper 70s across the Upper Cumberland on Tuesday! Winds will be on the lighter side, out of the north. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower side making those high temps not feel so bad. Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight over the Carolinas. This will bring some chance for precipitation over the Upper Cumberland, but little accumulation is expected at this time. Latest LREF probabilities show only a 30 percent chance for Crossville to see greater than 0.10 inches of rainfall through Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As mentioned above, the Upper Cumberland will see some precipitation chances through the mid week with the potential of TC Eight development. By Thursday into Friday, drier conditions are favored before rain chances return Sunday and into Monday. Confidence is low on this right now, but latest guidance suggest a mid-level disturbance pushing through by early next week so some showers can`t be ruled out at this time. High temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to even low 90s for Friday and into the weekend but moderate back into the mid 80s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected this TAF period although MVFR cigs and -SHRA will impact CSV after 15Z on Tuesday morning. Northeast winds will continue through the TAF period with speeds generally from 3-7 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 61 85 64 86 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 58 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 55 74 58 77 / 10 30 10 10 Columbia 58 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 57 77 60 79 / 10 20 10 0 Jamestown 57 73 60 76 / 20 30 10 10 Lawrenceburg 58 84 59 84 / 0 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 58 84 61 85 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 59 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....Shamburger