Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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826 FXUS64 KOHX 161126 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A few stubborn showers hanging on early this morning across the southwest, but these will gradually dissipate through the morning. We are finally done with impacts from Francine, and today marks the beginning of what should be a much quieter week. Ridging starts to build over the Plains today, setting up dry northerly flow over Middle TN. Plenty of sunshine will warm temperatures up into the mid and upper 80s. Temperatures tonight dip into the 50s and 60s, and with similar dewpoints, patchy fog is possible, especially for areas south of I-40 and along the Plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Monday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Overall, a nice week is ahead with mostly dry conditions and stable temperatures in the mid and upper 80s. The only noteworthy thing to talk about in the extended is potential TC Eight that NHC is highlighting off the coast of the Carolinas. The aforementioned ridging building over the Plains will block this potential tropical system from tracking into Middle TN. While its track is forecast to be well to our east over the Carolinas (possibly into northeastern TN), ensemble guidance is continuing to hint at light showers impacting the eastern Cumberland Plateau. While timing is currently uncertain, about 90% of model ensembles show light rain mid-week over the Upper Cumberland. However, this is still expected to be a non-impactful event as LREF probabilities of seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain is less than 20 percent. Ridging is favored to break down early next week, perhaps opening the door for a disturbance to bring rain to the area by Monday. However, as expected this far out, this is highly uncertain so stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. East winds becoming NE through the afternoon, less than 10 kts. Some increasing mid-level clouds tonight over the Cumberland Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 88 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 83 56 76 57 / 0 10 20 10 Columbia 87 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 84 58 78 60 / 0 10 10 0 Jamestown 82 58 75 59 / 0 20 20 10 Lawrenceburg 87 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 89 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 87 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Cravens