781
FXUS64 KOHX 070526
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Cold front starting to work its way through the area, with
dewpoints already in the mid to upper 50s in the far NW and in KY.
Some light isolated showers are possible but not expecting any
heavy rain or impacts this evening. Lows tonight should get into
the mid 50s to around 60, and highs tomorrow in the mid 70s to mid
80s with continued dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday night)
Issued at 1115044 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

After a very warm and humid Thursday, passage of a late day cold
front will bring cooler and less humid conditions. Friday will be
an excellent day with sunny skies, slightly below normal temps, reasonable
humidity levels, and a northwest breeze. Surface high pressure
will be located directly over the area and this high center will
keep conditions very nice through Friday night as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This weekend, we will be under northwest flow aloft. A series of
disturbances / weakening MCSs will come our way. The first of
these systems will approach on Saturday. This wave is expected to
dissipate as it moves into relatively dry and stable air across
our area, but some models do show a few remnant scattered showers
making it into northwest Middle Tennessee. Based on our latest
official model blend, we can expect patchy cloudiness but a mainly
rain-free Saturday. Temps will be seasonably warm Saturday but
humidity levels will remain reasonable.

We will see more significant rain and thunderstorm chances late
Saturday night through Sunday morning with a decaying MCS and a
cold front. Thankfully, we are not expecting severe wx with these
systems as atmospheric conditions continue to look stable.
Also, we are not looking for any flooding with average expected
rainfall amounts from one quarter to one half inch. Although the
main batch of rain and thunder is expected Sunday morning,
scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon as
well until a cold front drops completely across the area. This
Sunday evening cold front will usher in another shot of cooler
than normal air with low rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

For those looking for a break from the rainy pattern, the
extended outlooks from CPC show a cooler and drier than normal
pattern across the region early next week, transitioning to a warm
but still dry pattern mid and late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Clear skies and light northwest winds will prevail through the TAF
period. With dry air advecting in through the night fog
development is unlikely, but is something to watch for especially
at SRB and CSV where dewpoint depressions are low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  62  87  70 /   0   0  10  40
Clarksville    83  60  83  68 /   0   0  20  60
Crossville     76  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       83  58  87  67 /   0   0   0  30
Cookeville     78  56  80  65 /   0   0   0  40
Jamestown      77  55  79  63 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   82  58  85  66 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   83  58  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
Waverly        83  60  85  68 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Barnwell
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....05