158
FXUS66 KOTX 211111
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
411 AM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will occur into Saturday with temperatures
warming into the 80s and 90s. A dry cold front on Sunday will
create elevated to critical fire weather concerns over portions of
central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy
conditions. This will likely be followed by temperatures cooling
back down towards normal values by Monday. Another warm up arrives
on Tuesday and Wednesday before the next weather system enters on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: Clear skies and light winds will
prevail today and Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds
over the region. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to
upper 90s, making for the warmest conditions we`ve seen yet this
season. Remember to stay hydrated and take breaks in shade or air
conditioning as needed if you`re spending time outdoors. Heading
into Saturday night the ridge will shift eastward into Montana,
bringing a pattern change beginning Sunday. /Fewkes

Sunday through Thursday: The ensembles and clusters are in close
agreement through the extended forecast leading to moderate to
high confidence in the expected pattern. On Sunday a dry cold
front will sweep across the region as an upper trough swings into
southern British Columbia leading to elevated to critical fire
weather conditions for parts of the region. Sustained winds of
15-25 MPH with gusts of 35-40 MPH in combination with relative
humidity of 15-25% will be found from the Columbia Basin into the
Palouse, West Plains, and even nosing up into southern Stevens,
Pend Oreille, and Ferry counties. A deep marine layer on the west
side of the Cascades banking up into the crest should keep RH`s
above critical thresholds for those valleys along the East Slopes
of the Cascades. Cooling behind the front will bring temperatures
down closer to seasonal normals on Monday with dry, quiet weather.
On Tuesday and Wednesday another warm-up is forecast as the upper
flow becomes southwest ahead of the next upper trough with highs
back up into the 80s to lower 90s. Then on Thursday the next
trough swings in. This will result in breezy winds, temperatures
dropping back to normal, and a chance of showers. We will also
need to watch for thunderstorm potential but right now the NBM is
only carrying a 10-20% chance with the highest probabilities near
the Canadian border.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Few to scattered high clouds will move in around
18-21Z this afternoon. Conditions will be dry and warm with
light winds through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through 12z Saturday.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        85  56  89  59  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  82  53  86  56  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        81  54  87  58  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       91  60  95  64  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  49  87  50  80  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      80  51  82  53  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        79  57  84  60  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     91  59  94  58  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      90  66  92  60  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           90  59  91  56  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$