403
FXUS66 KOTX 270501
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1001 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front continues to bring showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday. Mild and dry weather is likely for
Friday followed by heat Saturday. The next system will move
through on Sunday with more wind and thunderstorms. Mountain
showers and seasonal temperatures will continue through the early
week. Temperatures look to trend warmer and drier by the middle to
the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The trough will continue to move through the
region. Instability will weaken overnight and decrease the
thunderstorm activity across the region excluding along the
Canadian border. The gradient will still keep the winds breezy
across the Basin but not as strong during the day. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 40s and 50s. For Thursday, the trough axis will
be over North Idaho. It will lead to shower and thunderstorm
activity over Northeast Washington and North Idaho. Thunderstorms
could drop as far South as Spokane and Pullman areas during the
afternoon. The instability is expected to be weaker than Wednesdays.
The main concern is expected to be infrequent lightning. Winds will
continue to be breezy across the Basin with gusts around 25 MPH.
Highs are expected to be in the 70s. Lows will be in the 40s to low
50s.

A ridge will begin to fill in behind the exiting system. It will
lead to mild, dry Friday. A few lingering showers are expected over
North Idaho through the morning. Highs will be in the upper 70s and
80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /JDC

Saturday through Wednesday: Temperatures will warm up on Saturday as
a transient ridge moves over the Inland Northwest ahead of an
approaching upper level trough. Although temperatures will be warm,
moist southwest flow with the trough will result in mid to high
level clouds through the day.

Models are in good agreement for the trough to start to move inland
late Saturday into Sunday. Currently, the best chances for
thunderstorms will be from the north Cascades across northeast
Washington mountains and far north Idaho where models are painting
800-1300 J/kg of surface CAPE. Precipitable water values around 100-
150% of normal combined with moderately slow storm motions
suggests heavy rainfall as a possible concern across these areas.
We will continue to monitor this potential, especially over burn
scars where slow moving storms increases the risk of flash
flooding. Winds will also increase behind the front on Sunday
across central Washington with sustained winds 15 to 25 mph and
wind gusts 25 to 40 mph.

Models diverge by early next week as the upper level trough shifts
to the east and and a large high pressure over the eastern Pacific
tries to shift into the Western US. Right now, models generally keep
the Inland Northwest under a broad northwest flow aloft with
temperatures around normal (highs in the 70s to mid 80s) and chances
for showers continuing over the mountains each afternoon through
Wednesday. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper level trough of lower pressure will shift
across the Inland Northwest tonight. Dynamics ahead of the trough
will keep showers with embedded thunderstorms going near the
Canadian border through the night. A band of developing cloud
cover along the leading edge may produce light precipitation in
the vicinity of KPUW and KLWS, but mostly only expecting overcast
mid level clouds with precipitation developing further east of
these airports. Westerly winds will remain gusty in the lee of the
Cascades and out over the basin tonight through Thursday. Expect
gusts of between 20-30 kts, especially through the morning into
the afternoon with better mixing potential. The cold pool
associated with the upper trough and diurnal heating in the
afternoon will destabilize the atmosphere with widely scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms mainly across northeast
Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is
a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms across the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor in the afternoon on Thursday. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  72  48  76  54  84 /  10  40   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  67  48  73  53  81 /  10  60  10   0   0   0
Pullman        51  67  47  73  50  82 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       61  78  56  82  58  90 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       45  69  40  76  46  81 /  40  80  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  64  46  72  49  78 /  20  80  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        55  64  50  69  54  81 /  20  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     53  77  50  81  58  87 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  54  81  62  83 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           55  77  50  83  58  85 /  20  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$