Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
039 FXUS66 KOTX 252131 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 231 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A calm, mild overnight will be followed by an an incoming system. A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last into Thursday. Then the cycle repeats. Mild and dry weather is likely for Friday followed by heat Saturday and then more wind and storms for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: Tonight will generally be calm and mild with lows in the 50s. An incoming low will bring a big shift to the pattern to the region. Ensembles are good agreement on the timing and strength of the front. A prefrontal wave is expected Wednesday morning with thunder potential for most of eastern Washington particularly along the the Cascades. The probability of thunder is at least 12%. Through the day, the thunder threat will lessen over the Basin but remain over the Cascades and northern mountains through the afternoon. Northern Cascades are being highlighted with the best potential for thunderstorms. The parameters are pointing to potential of stronger thunderstorm development in the area. These storms could produce heavy downpours, small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Winds will be breezy across the Basin with sustained in the teens and gusts into the low 30s. Luckily relative humidities will be on the upswing with the front to lessen the fire concerns. Showers and potential thunder remain in these areas through Thursday as the Low continues to slide through region. The main concern with the storms will be lightning. High temperatures will take a decent dip between the two days. Highs will be in the 80s and low 90s for Wednesday and drop into the 70s for Thursday. Overnight lows will continue to be in the 40s and low 50s. /JDC Friday through Tuesday: A progressive weather pattern will continue into this weekend and the beginning of next week with a series of short-lived ridges and troughs keeping plenty of variety in the forecast. Friday will be clear and mainly dry with light winds and mild temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s thanks to weak upper- level ridging. A slight (15 to 30 percent) chance of showers will linger in far northern WA and ID along the Canadian border, but for the rest of the region, precip chances will be near zero. The ridge will remain over the region into Saturday, allowing temperatures to warm into the low 80s to 90. These will be the highest temperatures we`ll see through at least the first half of next week. Heading into Sunday, the ridge will push eastward into Montana and a shortwave trough will move in behind it, bringing a subtle cooling trend through Monday and Tuesday along with a return of breezy winds, thunderstorms, and widespread chances for showers. Areas with the highest chances for thunderstorms include the Northern Mountains, Spokane area, and the ID Panhandle. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites. Winds mostly light and terrain driven. Increasing high to mid clouds toward end of TAF period as next system begins to breach the Cascades crest. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the region starting middle of Wednesday and lasting through the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Low confidence on thunderstorms impacting TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 57 84 53 72 49 76 / 0 20 10 40 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 56 83 53 67 48 73 / 0 20 20 50 20 0 Pullman 57 82 51 67 48 73 / 0 10 10 30 10 0 Lewiston 65 92 60 77 56 83 / 0 10 10 20 10 0 Colville 48 80 45 68 40 74 / 0 50 60 80 20 10 Sandpoint 52 79 50 63 46 71 / 0 20 40 80 40 10 Kellogg 60 84 55 63 51 69 / 0 20 20 60 30 10 Moses Lake 60 87 53 78 50 81 / 0 40 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 65 82 57 73 55 80 / 0 50 0 10 0 0 Omak 59 81 53 77 50 82 / 0 60 30 20 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$