686
FXUS66 KOTX 222142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated to critical fire
weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington
with widespread breezy to windy conditions. This will likely be
followed by temperatures cooling back down towards normal values
by Monday. Another warm up arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday before
the next weather system arrives on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today - Temperatures have warmed in the 80s and 90s despite cloud
cover associated with an incoming trough. Folks in the Methow valley
have even reported some light rain. Tonight will stay relatively
mild compared to lately with lows in the 50s and low 60s ahead of a
dry front passage.

Tomorrow - Have upgraded our fire weather watches to red flag
warnings in the Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Palouse, and Snake
river area for critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon
thanks to a dry front passage. Did not upgrade Wenatchee area or the
Waterville Plateau as modified marine layer air will likely keep
them above critical thresholds. MOS/raw model guidance continues to
show dry and windy conditions from Moses Lake to Spokane (sustained
winds 15 to 25 mph gusting up to 40 mph; relative humidity 12 to
20%). Inversion strength at the top of the boundary layer will be
crucial for how warm and dry we get tomorrow. Temperature spread is
very large between models but windy conditions usually means
effective mixing which means warmer temperatures which also means
lower relative humidity. /Butler

Monday through Friday: The start of the week will bring a zonal flow
pattern with an approaching Gulf of Alaska Low. The Low is expected
to pass on Wednesday. It will be followed by a ridge pattern to
close out the week. For Monday and Tuesday, the region can expect
cooler temps, behind Sundays cold front, with highs reaching into
the 70s to low 80s. These will be close to the season normals.
Temperatures will rise slowly ahead of the Low. Most areas should
expect highs into the 80s and low 90s by Wednesday. The highs on
Wednesday could change depending on the timing of the Low as the
ensembles are showing quite a spread between the runs. It will
bring a cooler and wetter airmass. Highs to close out the week will
be on the cooler side with highs in the 70s and low 80s.

The low on Wednesday will bring a drop in temperatures but not a lot
of precip chances. The best chances will mainly be over the
Cascades, northern mountains, and the North Idaho Panhandle. These
areas will have shower chances increase through the end of the week.
There is a 10-15% chance of and isolated thunderstorm during
Thursday and Friday afternoons. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: High pressure in place over the region will result in
dry and warm weather this weekend. Today and tonight, winds will
be light at 10 knots or less under thin high clouds above 10k feet
AGL. Sunday, winds will become breezy and gusty out of the
southwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through 18z Sunday.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  82  47  77  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  80  47  74  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        58  79  46  74  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       66  91  55  84  56  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  79  41  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      55  78  45  72  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        62  77  50  72  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     60  84  48  82  51  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      62  78  52  81  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           58  84  48  81  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone
     709)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

&&

$$