386
FXUS64 KOUN 251858
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
158 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

- Seasonable and dry weather is forecast through the weekend.

- A cold front is expected early next week, but significant
   weather with it not anticipated.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A beautiful evening is expected area-wide with a high pressure just
to our northeast. Clear skies with lightening north-northeasterly
winds are expected.

The main short-term forecast focus was to cue in on the potential
for more fog/stratus in central Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow
morning. On the surface, it looks like a night where one would
expect to see a reprise of this morning`s fog. Skies will clear out
and winds will move towards calm. However, where models yesterday
showed a wide area reaching toward saturation by daybreak today,
models only show relative humidity reaching 70 percent or so by
daybreak tomorrow. The potential still exists for patchy fog in
terrain-favored areas, particularly where heavy rain fell in the
last few days.

Relatively calm conditions and mostly clear skies are expected
tomorrow as well as the surface ridge builds in to our south. Highs
may tick up a degree or so compared to today, but not much more than
that.


Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico on Thursday night. From there, it is expected to phase with
a cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley, which will keep a large
troughy pattern across the southeast for several days. Our area is
expected to be on the periphery of this troughiness with a stout
subtropical ridge across the Desert Southwest. The result will be
modest tropospheric northerly flow through the weekend, with more
clear and comfortable days expected. Highs should generally range
into the low 80s with lows sitting in the mid to upper 50s.

A slight warm-up is possible on Monday as the next trough approaches
the northern Plains. This warm-up will serve as the lead-up to
potentially the strongest cold frontal passage of the fall so far,
which looks to be in line for about Tuesday.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through
the entire forecast period. High pressure centered over the
Central Plains will keep surface winds out of the north-northwest
around 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts across some terminals.
Surface winds will go light and variable after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  78  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         55  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           53  84  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68