Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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569 FXUS64 KOUN 201930 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 POPS for late this afternoon were increased slightly for many areas north of I-40. With continual moisture advection into central Oklahoma and decreasing clouds and the approach of the mid-level wave from NM, chances are greater than near zero. Still, storms in this region are expected to be isolated with possibly a few more closer to Kansas. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 - Marginal risk for severe storms across northern Oklahoma this afternoon, main hazard is strong downburst winds. - 40-60% shower/storm chances Saturday night through Monday morning. Marginal risk for severe storms NW half of the area. - Hot/humid conditions continue Saturday, cold front brings cooler weather Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Hot and humid conditions are in place once again this afternoon across much of the area, though clouds have tempered the heat across portions of central Oklahoma somewhat. We still expect a chance for showers and storms across northern Oklahoma later this afternoon and this evening as a shortwave currently across the panhandles skirts by just to our north into Kansas. The convective environment will support the risk for a few strong to severe wind gusts with large T/Td spreads and DCAPE of 1500+ J/Kg. Activity is expected to diminish and/or lift north of the area by early this evening. Much of tonight into tomorrow is then expected to be dry as the forcing with the main upper low remains to our west across New Mexico into the panhandles. With upper ridging remaining overhead, one more day of very hot temperatures is expected, with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 By later Saturday into Saturday night, ongoing showers and storms across the panhandles will push into northwestern/western Oklahoma as a cold front begins pushing slowly south and east. Moderate chances (40-70%) for showers and storms will progress across the area with the front on Sunday as the main upper wave ejects into the central Plains. A marginal risk for severe storms will accompany this activity, mainly along and north/west of the I-44 corridor. Additionally, given PWATs close to 2", heavy rain and localized flooding will be possible. Rain chances will diminish Monday morning as the front pushes south of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front, with highs on Monday expected to be in the 70s across much of the area to near 80 near the Red River. The cooler temperatures will persist into midweek as upper troughing remains over the central US. We may see additional shower/storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday as additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the trough, but models are not consistent on the track of this wave and where associated rain chances will be. For now, our highest chances during this period are across the southwestern half of the area, but this could change. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of isolated thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and early evening. Winds will be southerly with occasional gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 98 74 96 72 / 10 0 0 10 Hobart OK 100 72 97 70 / 0 0 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 101 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 71 95 60 / 20 10 50 80 Ponca City OK 98 74 98 70 / 20 10 10 40 Durant OK 99 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013- 018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ090. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...09