Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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010 FXUS64 KOUN 220252 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 952 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Hotter tomorrow with widespread readings of 95 to 100 deg F, with southeastern Oklahoma rising into the low 90`s... The upper ridge, currently centered near Tennessee, will shift westward towards southern plains as a shortwave travels across the northern plains and pushes a cool front towards Oklahoma tomorrow. Ahead of the front, veered H850 flow will be strongest for areas generally north of I-40, where H850 temperatures of 25-28 deg C are prog`d. This enhanced downslope flow should foster the day`s hottest temperatures (for our CWA) across northern Oklahoma, with the cities of Gage, Alva, Waynoka, Medford seeing temperatures near the century mark. This could possibly included locations east of there (e.g., Ponca City) as low-level WAA appears enhanced there and some CAMS suggest 100+ deg temperatures there, as well. Daytime mixing should lower dewpoints enough to keep heat index values near/below advisory criteria, and so a Heat Advisory is not being issued at this time. Expect southerly winds to veer southwesterly and become breezy by early afternoon, which should help mitigate the effects of heat stress. Strongest winds will be felt mainly north of I-40 with sustained winds at 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph possible. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on whether the cold front, which is currently stationary over Nebraska, enters northern Oklahoma late Saturday or stalls north of the KS/OK state line. However, there is somewhat better model agreement of potential isolated to widely scattered shower/thunderstorm development within a narrow zone (ahead of the front), which extends from northwest and across northern Oklahoma late afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level WAA is expected over far north-central Oklahoma (Grant and Kay Counties), and so best chances appear to reside in this area. If activity develops, high cloud-bases will favor primarily lightning and gusty winds. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The heat continues over the weekend and through much of next week as the mid-level ridge expands over the southern CONUS. Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees F are possible on Sunday for portion of north-central, and a few southern Oklahoma locations. These heat index values are expected to become increasingly more widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Hot and muggy conditions continue on Wednesday, especially south of I-40, where heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are possible. As the upper ridge shifts to the four corners region, a shortwave pushes a cool front into the area late Wednesday which will lower temperatures and heat index values some for Thursday. There is a chance of showers/storms on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Thompson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Light to moderate south winds will increase Saturday morning with many sites gusting above 20kts. Some high clouds will continue to stream across with some daytime cu, although less extensive than previous days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 95 77 99 / 0 0 10 0 Hobart OK 73 96 76 101 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 96 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 98 74 99 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 74 98 76 99 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 72 93 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30