092
FXUS64 KOUN 241049
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
549 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heat Advisory will be maintained for today. Key will continue to be
how much mixing will occur and influence on dewpoints. With stronger
south-southwest winds forecast today, lower dewpoints across western
Oklahoma should effectively mix farther north and east today, and
H85 temps are progd to be slightly less hot. This would yield
lower heat indices but still near or slightly above 105 where
advisory exists.

In highly elevated moist axis, evident by satellite and radar,
could yield some brief sprinkles through the morning hours. This
activity will spread slowly west to east along and within a few
counties north and south of I-40. While the radar may look busy,
any rain that reaches the ground is currently expected to be light
and very spotty.

Scattered storms initiating late today across the high plains to our
our north and west could make a run at northwest portions of
Oklahoma tonight, but current probabilities are less than 20 percent
that they will make it over the body of Oklahoma before
dissipating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heat advisory will be issued for Tuesday across the entire forecast
area, with an anticipated increase in dewpoints and hotter
temperatures ahead of a late day/evening frontal boundary. Given
some of the latest probability guidance on dewpoints, an excessive
heat warning (sufficient area/duration of >110F heat indices)
will be possible across central/north central Oklahoma as
dewpoints pool south of the front. This will be a call in the
coming couple of shifts, but will cover the hazard with an
advisory for now. The issuance of heat advisories through Saturday
appear likely, and an excessive heat warning for at least a
portion of the forecast area cannot be ruled out. The hottest day
is still looking to be Friday with veered flow and lower level
thermal ridge ahead of another approaching frontal boundary.

There still appears to be convective potential in the coming
week. The first main episode will be Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning associated with a weak cold front that is
forecast move over the northern half of Oklahoma. Highest chances
for storms will be across north central portions of Oklahoma.
Damaging wind gusts appear possible with the storms across far
northern Oklahoma Tuesday evening. Temperatures behind the this
front could average 5 to 10 degrees less hot for Wednesday into
Thursday, but dewpoints will likely be higher, especially on
Thursday. While portions of north central Oklahoma could see a
reprieve from advisory level heat indices, it will still be
uncomfortable with moderate to high risk WBGT levels.

Another cold front is still progd to approach the region next
weekend, providing the next main opportunity for scattered
showers and storms, along with a brief and slight cool down. Model
trends are to spread the mid and upper level ridge back to the
east by this time, decreasing the northwesterly flow that will
help steer the front into Oklahoma earlier in the week. This will
yield somewhat low confidence that the front would make it much
farther south than northern/northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue across all terminals. Mid to high
level clouds will move across the area this morning. Virga and
sprinkles are possible with some of these clouds.

Winds will veer slightly toward the south-southwest this morning
before backing back toward the south and becoming gusty this
afternoon. These gusts should decrease at most terminals after
sunset this evening.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  77  99  76 /  10   0  10  20
Hobart OK        100  77 101  77 /  10   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  99  78 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          101  77 104  71 /  10  10  10  30
Ponca City OK    102  78 101  74 /  10  10  10  40
Durant OK         98  77  98  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10