010
FXUS64 KOUN 231115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

    - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday night (30-50%) with
      next cold front.

    - Cool temperatures (70s / 80s) will persist through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers and storms are gradually making their way southeastward out
of our forecast area this morning. CAMs show some signal of
scattered redevelopment through the morning hours, though this
appears to be overdone compared to radar trends. Reduced PoPs for
this period significantly from the likely`s that NBM was giving.

A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler.
Expect highs in the 70s with light northerly winds under clearing
skies today.

Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s. With strong
radiational cooling expected (clear skies / light winds), there will
likely be a lot of local variation in minimum temperatures. The NAM
suggests some fog development in south central Oklahoma toward dawn,
but thus far this model appears to be an outlier.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The next system is forecast to drop down through the central plains
Tuesday / Tuesday night. This will result in some low to medium rain
chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially across the
southeastern half of the forecast area.

After that, synoptic uncertainty ramps up. Models cut off the upper
low and stall it near Arkansas. Meanwhile, a tropical system will
come northward out of the gulf. This will result in a Fujiwhara
effect as the two cyclonic systems rotate around each other,
possibly bringing their influence back over our forecast area
late in the week. The big question is which way will this spinning
top wobble.

Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s through most of the
week. After Thursday, uncertainty increases (see paragraph above)
with interquartile ranges approaching 10 degrees.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

IFR to MVFR cigs are expected at all terminals this morning
(excluding KWWR). As expected, an axis of post-frontal stratus has
spread across much of Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning.
Coverage is expected to erode slowly from northwest-to-southeast
through the late morning/early afternoon, as dry air continues to
filter in behind the front. Lowered category is expected to be
most prolonged at central into north-central Oklahoma terminals
today. A few rain showers may also impact terminals through the
mid-morning (~15-16 UTC), though minimal/nil impact to category
is expected as a result.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  56  81  58 /  30   0  10  40
Hobart OK         77  56  86  57 /  10   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  78  59  88  62 /  20   0  10  50
Gage OK           75  52  83  52 /   0   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     73  53  78  52 /  20   0  20  20
Durant OK         79  59  87  61 /  40   0  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...34