157
FXUS64 KOUN 240809
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

    - A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 9 AM this morning
      across central/south-central/southeast Oklahoma.

    - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
      western into central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening,
      with increasing coverage towards the Red River overnight. A
      few strong to severe storms (wind/hail) are expected during
      the evening (through 10 PM).

    - Additional low (20-30%) chances for precipitation on Friday
      into Saturday across eastern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas of fog (locally dense) this morning are expected to give way
to shower and thunderstorm potential by late this afternoon into
evening. The combination of light/nil surface flow, clear skies
and high humidity (especially in areas where appreciable rainfall
occurred on Sunday) has fostered fog development early this
morning. This includes locally dense fog (visibility <0.25-mile).
Accordingly, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of
central into southeast Oklahoma through 9 AM this morning.

Despite increasing coverage of high clouds, associated with an
approaching upper wave, temperatures this afternoon will run +10-
15 degrees (80s to low-90s) compared to Monday. The
aforementioned upper system will also introduce chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of
Oklahoma and north Texas on Tuesday afternoon into late evening.
The combination of marginally-sufficient instability/moisture and
increasing upper flow will introduce some potential for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms during the evening. Main storm
hazards look to be strong to severe wind gusts and hail. This
potential looks to `maximize` from west-central into southern
Oklahoma between 3-10 PM. Additional scattered to numerous areas
of precipitation (including intermittent thunder) are expected to
shift towards the Red River vicinity into the overnight.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The upper system that will provide precipitation/storm chances on
Tuesday is forecast to become `cut off` as it meanders towards
the Mid-South into the midweek. With our area positioned on the
western periphery of this feature, and in the wake of a previous
surface front, dry and cool (seasonable) conditions are expected
on Wednesday and Thursday.

By the late week (i.e., Friday onwards), signal continues to exist
in both deterministic and ensemble guidance for interaction to occur
between the closed upper system and Potential Tropical Cyclone 9
(soon to become Tropical System Helene). A few scenarios show
remnants of the tropical airmass being recycled around the cutoff
system (which may retrograde some during this time). Should this
occur, chances would exist for scattered precipitation across
eastern forecast zones. For now, with high run-to-run variability
and uncertainty in timing/strength/track of important synoptic
features, will maintain mainly slight chance (20-30%) PoPs for
eastern Oklahoma from Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, mainly low
impact weather is expected during the period with seasonable
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...IFR conditions expected early this morning...

IFR vis/cig restrictions appear likely near KOUN south and east
toward KDUA for several hours early this morning, with lower chances
for IFR but likely MVFR from KSWO to KOKC and toward KLAW and KSPS.
With what develops, there will be southwest component to lower level
flow to help insolation reduce restrictions, but high clouds will
also be increasing after 12Z. Will keep VFR conditions toward and
after 16/17Z. Prob30 TSRA was included in this set of TAFs for
scattered convection that is possible along and just ahead of
incoming cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  58  78  55 /  30  50   0   0
Hobart OK         88  58  84  54 /  40  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  62  84  57 /  10  40   0   0
Gage OK           83  52  83  51 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  53  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         88  62  83  58 /   0  70  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11