657
FXUS64 KOUN 211057
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Outside of northern Oklahoma, temperatures today forecast to remain
near or even slightly below average. This will be mainly due to
anticipated cloud cover. Cannot completely rule additional isolated
showers mainly through the morning hours, but rain chances will
be too low for inclusion in forecast. Lows tonight will remain
above average with southerly winds and seasonably high dewpoints
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Overall pattern of eastern U.S. upper ridge building over the region
through the weekend, and shifting west of the Southern Plains
continues in the models. H50 heights associated with this ridge
appear to be in the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year
(lower 590dm) not quite record territory but well above average.
Likewise, H85 temperatures also well above average. This should keep
forecast temperatures for much of the region at least 5 to 10
degrees above average through the early part of next week. Less
certainty on amount of drying/diurnal mixing out of higher
dewpoints, which will have the greatest impact on apparent
temperatures and associated heat headlines. Heat advisories still
appear likely for the first part of next week ahead of a cold
front, most likely Sunday through Tuesday. Depending on
progression of cold front and amount of convection, advisories may
be needed across southern portions of Oklahoma into northern
Texas again on Wednesday.

Weak cold front enters northern Oklahoma late Saturday. Some
convection appears possible near this boundary across northern and
perhaps western Oklahoma, but currently probabilities are below 20
percent. Of course, ensemble forecasts in a weakly forced regime
will underforecast convective potential. Most models settle this
front down close to I-40 before stalling and lifting back north
Sunday and Sunday night. Where this weak front stalls, and how
quickly it mixes back to the north, will impact the temperatures
on Sunday. In addition, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms near
this boundary, but with little in the way of larger scale support,
relatively low confidence will keep mention of rain out of
forecast for now and we will go with NBM/blended PoPs.

GFS continues to be the most aggressive with a stronger front
Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing it into northern Oklahoma late Tuesday
and much more aggressive with frontal convection Tuesday night
into Wednesday with its better upper support. Higher chances for
organized convection will likely be to our east, but PoPs will
continue late Tuesday through the end of the week with more in the
way of northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Generally unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected
through the TAF period.

Some stratocumulus or cumulus will develop later this morning
into the afternoon. The most likely scenario is VFR ceilings
(~3500 to 5000 ft AGL). However, there is a 10 to 25% chance of
MVFR ceilings may develop. The terminals with the highest
probabilities (~20 to 25%) to see MVFR ceilings are across west
central into northwest Oklahoma (KCSM and KWWR) with lower
probabilities elsewhere (~10%). There is also a very low
probability (10% or less) any terminal could see a shower today.

Winds will remain from the south to southeast through the TAF
period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  95  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72  96  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  95  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           72  99  73  98 /  10   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     74  98  76  98 /  10   0  10   0
Durant OK         72  95  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10