843
FXUS63 KPAH 142312
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out with fropa
  during peak heating today.

- Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru
  next week with daily heat indices in the upper 90s to around
  100 degrees. About the only relief will be the slim almost
  daily chance for an isolated thunderstorm during the heat of
  the afternoon or early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field developing along and
behind the cold front. This trend should continue as the front
sags southward thru the FA during peak heating. The CAMs are
mostly silent, but do suggest some popcorn convection is
possible, esp the FV3, which hints at some orographic assistance
from the Ozarks with a little better development over portions
of SEMO than any of the others show. Altogether, we`re
satisfied with our isolated 10-20% pops we inherit.

After fropa, or fro-disintegration, the upper ridge takes over
for the weekend and into next week. Drier dew points Saturday
will make high temps around 90 not feel so so bad, but by
Sunday, those dew points start to nudge upward and ultimately
they settle into the upper half 60s to around 70, where they
stay for the entirety of the new week. That combined with daily
highs into/thru the 90s will mean upper end 90s and some 100s
for Heat Indices. It`s not headline material, but is worth
notice as our first real stretch of significant heat/humidity
this summer. The only relief will be the almost daily chance to
encounter an isolated shower/storm during the afternoon or early
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A few isolated showers around KPAH will dissipate over the next
1 to 2 hours. SCT cu around 5kft will also give way to clear
skies tonight. Aside from some SCT high cloud tomorrow and
perhaps a few cu mainly in southeast Missouri it looks primarily
clear. Light and variable winds tonight will become easterly
around 5-7 kts tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...SP