Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
979 FXUS63 KPAH 131823 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of thunderstorms with an approaching front late tonight and Friday afternoon. - Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru next week with daily heat indices around 100 degrees. An isolated heat of day thunderstorm then cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Showers/storms well to our north (over IA) will dive southward with a front tonight. It will arrive on our doorstep by/after midnight, with little instability/shear remaining to feed it. Still, there may be just enough gas left for an isolated shower or storm, mainly north of I-64. The main part of the system/front makes passage over the Mid to Upper part of the Ohio Valley tmrw, trail-dragging its boundary across our CWA or maybe more like disintegrating it as the mean Central U.S. ridge starts to build. It or an outflow from convection thereof may be just enough for a little heat of day fuel/forcing tmrw to also carry an isolated pop, with the best chance shifting from the north part to the south part of the FA. After sunset, the high pressure ridge starts to really take over and leads to giving us our first prolonged period of heat/humidity. Daily temps soar into/thru the 90s, and after a brief post frontal cooldown in dew points Saturday, they return to near 70F for the new week. As a result, the new week will see consistent daily heat index values in the upper 90s, with a few triple digit readings to boot. And CPC outlooks our area with Excessive Heat thru the 24th, so it`s possible we don`t see temps/dew points like we have right now again until maybe even October?! Also, along with the summer-like heat and humidity returning, a daily heat-of-day pulse type storm cannot be completely ruled out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A cold front will dive in from the north tonight, increasing mid and high level cloudiness that spreads in from its upstream convection. There may be enough of it that holds together to introduce a small (30%) pop for KMVN, with lesser chances to the south as the boundary works thru the remainder of the terminals thru tmrw morning. Expect a pre frontal southwesterly breeze early tmrw to shift to the northwest with fropa by or before early tmrw pm. Restricted CIGS around 3K FT AGL will accompany its passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$