712
FXUS63 KPAH 201904
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and muggy conditions will continue into the first
  half of the weekend, with only a small chance of thunderstorms
  forecast.

- A cold front will push through the region during the Sunday to
  Monday period, bringing a good chance of thunderstorms and
  much- needed rain for parts of the region.

- Following the passage of the cold front, cooler and less humid
  conditions will arrive for the middle to latter half of next
  week, with only small rain chances during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...A decaying cold front attempted
to move into the region this morning, but it has been rebuffed
by a stout ridge axis extending from the southern Great Plains
into the Mid-South. A few showers associated with this boundary
quickly dissipated as they moved into southeast MO and southwest
IL. Remnant outflow boundaries and diurnal heating in this very
warm and muggy airmass may kick off a few isolated
thunderstorms this evening, mainly for areas across southeast MO
northeast to the Interstate 64 corridor. However, the great
majority of the region will stay dry. Overnight lows will be
quite warm for late September, only falling into the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Saturday will see a similar setup today, with very warm and
muggy temperatures and humidity levels. High temperatures will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values may approach
or reach 100 degrees in a few spots. More isolated to widely
scattered diurnally- driven convection will pop up over
southeast MO and far southwest IL as well. However, most
locations looks to stay dry again. Overnight lows Saturday night
will again by quite warm, in the upper 60s.

Sunday through Monday night...Rain and thunderstorm chances will
be in the rise beginning Sunday as a more potent cold front
moves towards the region. This front will have some upper-level
support as an H5 trough moves southward into the Upper Midwest.
The first wave of showers and thunderstorms will push through
the Interstate 64 corridor, while locations further south stay
dry. This will lead to a wide range in temperatures on Sunday,
with highs ranging from the lower 80s along I-64 to the lower
90s along the AR/TN borders. As the front progresses
southeastward into Monday and Monday night, PoPs will ramp up
in similar fashion. This will keep high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s on Monday due to higher rain chances and
increased cloud cover. The steadier rain will gradually exit the
region from west to east Monday night.

Rainfall totals have increased during the Sunday-Monday period,
due to the potential for multiple rounds of convection and
elevated precipitable water levels. The latest QPF through
Monday night shows about 0.75-1.5" for southern IL and
southwest IN. Rainfall amounts will taper off further south,
with forecast amounts of 0.5-1.0" over southeast MO, and about
0.25-0.75" across western KY.

Tuesday through Thursday...A transition to a cooler and less
humid pattern will arrive for the middle part of the upcoming
work week. H5 troughing will settle over the Midwest, and high
temperatures will cool to more fall-like values. High
temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 70s in most
areas, with comfortable overnight temperatures dipping into the
middle to upper 50s. The persistent trough will result in
elevated cloud cover and perhaps a few light rain showers, but
the great majority of the region looks to stay dry during this
period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the 18z TAFs, steady SW surface flow will continue ahead of
the approach of a weak cold front. Winds will be 5-10 kts this
afternoon, relaxing to 5 kts or less overnight. This front may
kick off some isolated convection this evening, but coverage at
this time looks to be too low to mention in any TAF at this
time. FEW-BKN diurnal CU with bases around 7kft will wane this
evening, with SCT mid- and high-level cloud cover persisting
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS