Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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509 FXUS63 KPAH 211712 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily heat and humidity with Heat Indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s will peak Tuesday around 105 degrees. - Best rain chances will accompany the approach and passage of cold fronts Sunday and Wednesday. The Wednesday fropa will bring an end to the daily oppression of heat/humidity as slightly cooler and drier air arrives for the week`s end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 High pressure at the surface and aloft strengthens its grip overtop the PAH FA today as a 596DM H5 High centers over the TN Valley. Resultant columnar subsidence should win out over the diurnal flare of instability with highs in the low-mid 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F creating peak HI`s generally 95-100 degrees. The surface and upper ridge axes shift south and east heading into the weekend. A low pressure system will race across the Great Lakes and punch a cold front thru the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley Sunday. Its approach introduces pops here as early as late Saturday night, and its passage during peak heating/instability Sunday afternoon-evening will help pops rise into the mid chance category, even on its trailing edge. As a result of this synoptic timing, temps are a little higher Saturday in the mid 90s, with lower half 90s slated for Sunday`s more clouds/pops. But dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 Saturday pool in the lower 70s Sunday, so effective peak HI`s range from the upper 90s to lower 100s both weekend days. After fropa, high pressure reasserts its grip for the beginning of the new work week, with high temperatures responding by rising into the mid-upper 90s. With dew points still around or in the 70s, HI`s threaten Advisory headlines around 105 degrees by Tuesday. Another cold front`s approach and passage Wednesday will help pops spike before bringing an end to the sustained daily heat/humidity by week`s end. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 SCT cu field with bases around 5-6kft today will dissipate this evening and then develop again by late morning on Saturday. Can`t rule out some patchy ground fog again late tonight, mainly at the fog prone terminals (KMVN/KCGI). Guidance isn`t hinting at it as much as the past couple of nights, but given the calm winds think its still possible. Winds will be light and variable today, calm tonight, and then SW around 6-10 kts by late Saturday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...SP