754
FXUS63 KPAH 152253
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
553 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit or close to it heat index Sunday-Monday, and
  again heading into next weekend.

- Daily storm chances Monday thru Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The 1 PM dew point is 51F in Wayne City, IL, but 72F in Poplar
Bluff, MO. Visible satellite shows a diurnal cu field mostly in
conjunction with the higher dew points over WKY/SEMO. These will
disperse with sunset/loss of fuel.

The mean upper ridge moves east with time. Higher temps/dew
points will be realized beginning tmrw and lasting into the new
work week. The ridge is strongest Sunday-Monday with 590+ DM
heights at H5. Dew points close to 70F and high temps well into
the 90s both days means Heat Indices near or into the triple
digits, but looks just shy of headline 105s at this writing. The
only relief will be from the daily heat of day storm chances in
the high instability, low shear environ.

The high pushes further east by mid week, as a low pressure
storm system approaches from the west. Good return flow here/in
between means more pops/clouds Tuesday-Wednesday, which gives a
temporary reprieve with highs in the 80s and a continued daily
chance of showers/storms.

The high retrogrades its ridge anchor thereafter, resulting in
a drier and warmer back half of the week. We`re looking at
highs again in the mid to potentially upper 90s and heat
indices possibly around the century mark again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The TAFs are VFR. High pressure centered northeast of the region
will bring light E-ESE winds into the area overnight under
clear skies. Winds will shift to the S-SSW at 6-8 kts after 15z
as the surface high shifts southward. Increasing low- level RH
values will result in SCT diurnal CU development with bases in
the 4-6kft range in the 15-18z window, persisting through the
rest of the forecast period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to
     midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Sunday night for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS