907
FXUS63 KPAH 121846
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

- Hot and humid Sunday. Heat index values around 100 degrees. An
  isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

- A chance of showers and storms is forecast Monday through next
  Wednesday. Very warm and humid.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A high pressure ridge across the area will lose its grip and
give way to return flow through Thursday. The result is dry
weather will continue tonight and Thursday. Thursday night,
organized convection is forecast to our north and west in
conjunction with some heights falls and an energetic shortwave
that will move across the Great Lakes region. The convection
should fall apart as it enters our area along Interstate 64 by
Friday morning. This may set the stage for isolated afternoon
thunderstorms Friday, as either a remnant outflow boundary
and/or weak front will be across the area. Models advertise
plenty of instability and high dew point air to go along with
the weak convergence forecast. Some of the guidance hints at a
very weak impulse moving southeast across the region as well.
The isolated chance could continue into the evening and shift
toward southeast Missouri.

Heights will rise over the weekend into early next week as a
ridge sets up overhead initially then broadens and intensifies
over the southeast U.S. We should see a brief break in the
humidity Saturday as lower dew point air works south. Then on
Sunday it will be hot and humid with heat index values around or
just above 100F due to return flow. Not sold that it will
remain completely dry Sunday given the weak return flow on the
west side of the ridge, and available instability and moisture
seen in the data. For now we will continue to monitor model
trends.

With the models keeping the upper high center to our east early
next week, a series of impulses are forecast to move north on
the west side of the ridge and over our area, resulting in a
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This should help keep
the heat and humidity in check.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions through Thursday. Winds will gradually become SSW
5 to 10 kts Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...CN