668
FXUS63 KPAH 251128
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in affect for
  portions of the area that will see heat indices at or above
  105.

- Chances for showers and storms mid week bring a brief respite
  from the heat. Storms will be pulsey in nature but some could
  be strong to severe, with mainly a wind threat.

- Hot and humid again on Saturday with heat indices of 105-110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A hot and humid day is in store for today with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat indices of 100 to 115 (SEMO). A Heat Advisory is
in effect for portions of the area with heat indices above 105 from
Noon to 8 PM today. There is a weak chance for some afternoon
convection to develop along an outflow boundary left over from a
large MCS that moved through the western Great Lakes. Instability is
sufficient to strong but shear is weak, and so storms will likely be
pulsey in nature with damaging winds possible with the collapse of
stronger storms.

Mainly zonal flow aloft yields to a shortwave trof moving through on
Wednesday. This will push a cold front through the area and bring
with it a little bit of short lived respite from the heat. The best
chance for rain is also on Wednesday with more pulse storms possible
throughout the day. Confidence in timing and location are low. Some
may be strong to severe though with damaging winds the main
concern with the collapse of stronger storms.

Thursday will be nice, relatively speaking, with less humidity
and highs in the mid to upper 80s. This will be short lived
however as temperatures climb back into the low to mid 90s on
Friday. Saturday will be another hot and humid day with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and heat indices of 105-110. The potential
for some convection on Saturday could work to dampen the heat
threat some. Another front looks to move through Sunday morning
with convection chances Saturday and Sunday. Slightly cooler
conditions on Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s then hot again Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Some
midlevel cu may develop this afternoon and then showers and
storms are moving into the area from the north after midnight.
Winds are generally out of the southwest today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>086-088>090-092>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     INZ081-085-086.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY