Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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161 FXUS61 KPBZ 220353 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm weather is expected through the weekend. Fog is possible overnight and early Sunday morning. A wetter pattern is becoming increasingly likely next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Clearing skies late with areas of fog overnight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Maintained temperatures and dew points from prior update. Fog remains a possibility tonight, particularly for areas where it rained and in insulated river valleys as temperatures approach saturation. Lows are expected to bottom out a few degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry with above average temperatures on Sunday. - Rain chances (yes, rain chances) increase starting Monday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A shortwave ridge axis will slide overhead in the wake of the departing disturbance from Saturday with height rises and warm advection supporting temperatures again into the 80s, warmest in eastern Ohio, with 90 not out of the question there. High clouds will increase in the evening from the west ahead of approaching low pressure. The main takeaway headed into the next workweek is that we are finally seeing appreciable chances for beneficial rain. The upper ridge axis will quickly be shunted east by an approaching trough, and a shift to southwest flow aloft on its backside will open the door for better moisture to work its way into the region. Clustered ensembles exhibit pretty good agreement through Tuesday night with just some strength and timing differences of the progression of the responsible upper trough. Rain chances will increase Monday morning as surface low pressure progged to be across Michigan pulls a trough through the area. Ensemble probability for >0.5" of rain through Tuesday night is still high (up to 80%) and a 50-70% chance of >1". && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday with a widespread, beneficial rainfall possible. - Rain chances continue for the latter half of the week but confidence in amounts is low. - Temperatures closer to average through the week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Uncertainty then increases significantly with ensembles becoming much more spread on how the upper pattern evolves. The majority consensus is that the Ohio Valley remains in a troughing setup with significant differences on placement and amplitude of the trough, but even one solution is attempting to establish a ridging pattern. For continued beneficial rain, we would want the solution(s) that sets up a trough deeper and off to our west. Long story short, scenarios exist where additional beneficial rain sticks around for the latter half of the week, and scenarios exist for a drier period. Despite this uncertainty, at least continued low precipitation chances are appropriate through the end of the work week. 72 hour precip totals have seen a slight eastward nudge in the past several ensemble runs with probability for another >0.5" from Wednesday through Saturday morning at 40-50% east of Pittsburgh and 20-40% further west. A few high end, low probability scenarios exist pending tropical influence. All told, the wetter pattern next week holds some promise to at least somewhat mitigate the ongoing drought. Temperatures moderating to seasonable levels (for daytime highs at least) will help as well. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Skies have mostly cleared across the region this evening behind the departing cold front. Overnight fog is likely at terminals that received rain this afternoon... which include all sites other than BVI and ZZV. However, IFR fog restrictions are less likely at PIT, AGC, and HLG, while IFR to LIFR is more likely at DUJ, LBE, and MGW. Fog will lift by 14Z, with VFR conditions for the remainder of Sunday under building high pressure. .Outlook... Rain and restriction chance increase late Sunday night into Monday with another crossing cold front. Unsettled weather is then possible through mid-week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Milcarek NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Rackley