709
FXUS61 KPBZ 170702
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
302 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving low pressure will return limited rain chances to the
area today into Thursday, mainly for areas southeast of
Pittsburgh. Any rainfall amounts will be light. Dry weather
returns late in the week through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Limited rain chances today south of Pittsburgh
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure remains in place across the NE CONUS. A coastal
low has moved onshore across the Carolinas, and has become
vertically stacked. The high will gradually shift eastward
today, as the low remains nearly stationary. Moisture rotating
around the low, and ascent/vorticity advection, will result in
an increase in rain chances south of I 70 today. The 00Z PIT
sounding showed very dry air below 400 mb. A dry, downsloping
easterly flow should also help to maintain this dry air. This
will preclude rain from reaching areas much further north than
I-68, with only slight chances as far north as I-70.

A cirrus shield will remain in place across the rest of the
area today, with some lowering and thickening of the cloud cover
expected as additional moisture streams in. High temperatures
are expected to be around 5 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Periodic low rain chances continue into Thursday
- Seasonable temperatures Wednesday, returning to above average
  readings by Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The coastal low is progged to drift toward the Mid Atlantic
region by Thursday. Moisture and vorticity advection will
continue to rotate around the low, with some northward push
further across the region later tonight and Wednesday. This
should result in limited rain chances reaching eastern Ohio and
western PA.

Rain chances will shift further southward again on Thursday as
the low opens into a trough and reaches the East Coast. Rainfall
amounts are expected to remain minimal for most of the area,
though the eastern facing slopes of eastern Tucker county has
the best chance at seeing a half an inch or more of rain.
Elsewhere, probabilities of even a tenth of an inch of rain are
generally less than 50 percent, with the greatest chances south
of I-68.

Cloud cover and rain chances should limit high temperatures on
Wednesday, with readings near seasonable levels. Temperatures
should warm Thursday as the low moves eastward and cloud cover
decreases.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather through early next week
- Above average temperatures through early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate a ridge will build from the from the TX
Gulf Coast, through the Upper Ohio Valley region, and into
eastern Canada Friday, and persist through the weekend.

The ridge is progged to begin to break down and shift eastward
early next week, as a trough tracks across the Midwest. The
ridge should maintain dry weather and warmer than average
temperatures through the long term period. Ensembles indicate a
more zonal flow could develop after the end of the long term
period, with at least some chance for rain towards mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period as mid and high clouds
increase ahead of a low pressure system slowly approaching from
the south. A few stratocu clouds are also possible with some
limited increase in moisture at around 5kft on Tuesday. With the
Upper Ohio Valley region on the northern side of the low, expect
a persistent east wind at 5-10kt.

.Outlook...
Occasional restrictions and showers are possible, especially
near MGW, Tuesday night through Thursday as the low slowly
tracks across the Lower Ohio Valley and Appalachians region.
VFR is then expected through Saturday as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM