457
FXUS65 KPIH 252002
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
202 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.
SW flow aloft allowing for moisture to rotate NE into East Idaho
from northern Nevada/California. NAM Nest model develops weak
convection over the Southern Sawtooth region this evening, but
signals are weak and there is little support from the remainder of
the HREF components, so confidence is low. Better chances for
light showers increase overnight as moisture deepens across the
region. Convective intensity increases with isolated/scattered
thunderstorms possible during the day Wednesday most areas. HREF
components differ in timing and placement of thunderstorm
coverage, but would expect the main limiting factor would be early
cloud cover limiting some of the deeper instability potential.
That said, some of the storms could be strong, though sub-severe,
with 40-50mph gusts and small hail. The combination of increased
moisture and precipitation development will help keep temps
slightly cooler across the region for Wednesday, but highs will
still range in the upper 80s to low 90s many low elevation areas.
DMH

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
An upper low will move onshore and track along the US/CA border with
the associated trough and cold front shifting through Southeast
Idaho on Thursday. The frontal passage will bring slightly cooler
temperatures, advisory level winds to 55 mph across the Upper
Snake Plain, and isolated showers and thunderstorms to extreme
eastern Idaho. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
eastern extent of the CWA in a general risk of thunder, with
National Blend PoPs mostly ranging 20 to 40 percent. Daytime highs
will return to within several degrees of normal for Thursday and
Friday, but these relatively cooler temperatures will be short-
lived. Models show high pressure rebounding on Saturday, with the
NBM featuring about a ten degree increase in high temperatures
between Friday and Saturday. The next approaching trough will
bring another cold front through southern Idaho late Sunday which
will provide slight chances for precipitation again and decrease
temperatures to the low 80s and cooler early next week. Cropp


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions along with mostly dry conditions
forecast today. Cloud cover will continue to increase this
afternoon and evening as a trough moves onshore. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms could impact any terminal Wednesday, with the
probability of thunder 50% to 70% at all terminals. Hi-resolution
models show differences in precipitation timing, but the first
band looks to shift northward by 15z with virga prior to that.
Winds will continue to run breezy today and tomorrow, with SW
sustained winds to around 20 kts and gusts to around 30 kts. Cropp


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today will be the hottest day of the week before
the high pressure ridge breaks down and a trough moves onshore.
Widespread minimum humidities will range 10 to 20 percent today
and winds will continue to be breezy today and tomorrow over the
Snake Plain, with sustained winds to around 20 mph and gusts to
around 35 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could impact all
of Southeast Idaho on Wednesday but will be less probable for
South Central Idaho on Thursday. A cold front will result in
stronger winds on Thursday, with gusts across Fire Weather Zone
410 expected to reach as high as 55 mph. Any thunderstorm outflow
winds could also be capable of producing similar gusts.
Temperatures will return to near normal for Thursday and Friday
but will increase again for the weekend with high pressure
returning on Saturday. Cropp



&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$