058
FXUS65 KPIH 251930
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
130 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Satellite imagery
shows shortwave feature shifting NNE through Oregon toward the
Idaho panhandle this afternoon. Minimal impact is expected with
precipitation remaining northwest of Custer county, and thus
outside of the forecast area. Winds however have begun to tick up
associated with this feature, and are expected to be occasionally
breezy at higher elevations (especially central mountains) and
portions of the Snake Plain through the remainder of the daylight
hours. Another stronger shortwave feature is located off the PacNW
coast, and will roll across the panhandle during the day Thursday.
Impacts should be a repeat... namely, no precipitation and an
uptick in wind speeds. Temps remain above normal and unseasonably
warm. DMH

.LONG TERM...Friday through Next Tuesday.
It`s starting to feel like we`re running out of ways to say it, but
our warm and dry weather pattern is going to continue through the
extended forecast. It seems like models like to tease a system
coming in at the end of each run and then take it back the next day!
Alas, that means we have no precipitation in the forecast as we wrap
up the month of September and head into October. Highs will stay in
the 80s for this period with Saturday being the warmest one where
many of us will push into the mid and upper 80s for afternoon highs.
This is running about 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time
of the year. At this time, the NBM shows there is about a 20 percent
chance that parts of the eastern Magic Valley will crack 90 degrees
on Saturday, but the trend has been to gradually warm highs each
day, so it would not be surprising to see that increase over the
next two days. For what it is worth, the record high for Pocatello
for September 28th is 90 degrees (1994). A shortwave is still on
track to pass through the area on Sunday, which should help cool us
back down into the 70s for Monday, but we start to warm again on
Tuesday.
AMM


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue withe mainly high cloud
cover associated with passage of a pair of shortwave features
today and Thursday. Winds increase slightly for the East Idaho
terminals this afternoon/early evening, and again during the day
Thursday. Gusts are anticipated to top out between 15-20kts both
days. DMH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The warm, dry weather will continue through much of
the week ahead. One system is moving through central Idaho today and
will bring about a 10 to 20 percent chance of an isolated shower or
storm in the northwestern most part of zone 475. For the rest of us,
this will be a dry cold front that will take us from the low to mid
80s today to mid and upper 70s tomorrow. Winds are also picking up a
bit with gusts for everyone around 20 to 25 mph this afternoon with
gusts up to 35 mph on ridges in the Central Mountains. With low
minimum RHs in the Central Mountains, too, this will be some near-
critical fire weather conditions, but since fuels aren`t critical in
this area we will not be issuing any Red Flag warnings. Breezy gusts
around 25 to 30 mph will continue on Thursday afternoon out across
the Arco Desert/Mud Lake area with gusts around 20 mph elsewhere.
Then it is back to warming up through Saturday before a
shortwave/dry cold front moves through on Sunday for another breezy
afternoon and to drop our highs back into the 70s for next Monday.
AMM


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$