298
FXZS60 NSTU 160101
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
201 PM SST Tue Jul 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Fair weather conditions with gentle to moderate easterlies
continue to be observed throughout the day. This is further
observed through the latest satellite imageries and hourly
observations in the last couple of hours. Upper air observations
(RAOB) from this afternoon (16/00Z) shows stable conditions over
the islands. The National Blend Model (NBM) ensembles show minimal
shower activity over the islands for tonight through the rest of
the week. This is mainly due to a mid-level high pressure system
remaining over the area through the end of the week. This high
pressure will also maintain a moderate easterly flow through the
beginning of the new week. By the new week, an increase potential
for showers is expected as model data projects a low pressure
system moving close to the area from the west-southwest.

Therefore, expect passing showers with moderate to fresh
easterlies for tonight through at least Wednesday. Easterlies will
decrease to a more gentle to moderate flow for the rest of the
week. Easterlies will likely turn northeast with numerous showers
by the end of this forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
The latest observations from the PacIOOS buoy to the west (King-
Poloa) reports wave heights around 7 to 9 feet with peak periods
around 15 to 17 seconds long. These conditions are known to
enhance surfs and generate dangerous rip currents along the
shorelines, especially the south to west facing shores. Hence,
prompting a high surf advisory for these shorelines. Model data
shows this long period southwest swell lingering in the area
through at least Thursday. Model solutions also show a downward
trend in seas starting Wednesday. However, the long periods may
prolong the high surfs and dangerous rip currents. By Thursday,
model data is showing periods briefly easing below 10 seconds, and
increase again by Thursday night. Will continue to monitor
conditions as the week progresses and as more data becomes
available. In the meantime, advisories for small crafts and high
surfs are in place for coastal waters and all islands of American
Samoa.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen