090
FXUS65 KPUB 132314
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot today, but front moving across the plains this evening.

 - Isolated storms, some strong, later today into this evening,
   especially over the greater Kiowa county region.

 - Severe storms (winds) possible tomorrow.

 - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected to push across the
   plains Friday evening, with strong to severe thunderstorms
   possible.

 - Slightly cooler Saturday, with isolated afternoon showers
   and thunderstorms along the mountains.

 - Mostly dry conditions anticipated for the end of the week
   and through midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Currently...

Boundary was pushing across the Palmer Divide early this afternoon,
with a bit cooler and moister airmass behind the front. A few
convective showers were noted with this boundary. An isolated
cluster of storms was also noted over Baca county associated with a
sfc trough/dryline feature over this region.

SPC mesoanalysis was showing scant values of CAPE along the I-25
corridor region while along the CO/KS border, values were in the 1000
to 1500 range. Effective shear was non existent in front of the
boundary while up in NE CO, values were 30 to 50 knts.

Rest of Today...

Concern is increasing that we may see a few severe storms over the
far eastern plain this afternoon. SPC has recently issued an MD
discussing the threat for strong gusty winds developing over plains
associated with the storms along the boundaries. After the front
goes by across our area, shear will increase somewhat and so will
CAPE, however the lower level moisture behind the front will likely
mix out some, limiting (but not eliminating) the severe storm
potential. Will continue to monitor.

This evening...

Isolated storms may still be ongoing along the border, but believe a
majority of the activity should be in KS by this time period.

Interestingly, late tonight guidance wants to show a few shower
possible redeveloping over the far eastern plains, and believe this
is associated with the warm air advection developing in advance of
the trough that will affect us tomorrow.

Tomorrow...

Main concern is the potential for severe storms. Main svr threat
will be the potential for strong damaging winds as flow through the
column will be relatively unidirectional and relatively strong cold
air advection will mover over the plains as the trough axis moves
overhead over the deeply mixed airmass during prime heating. Expect
a band of organized strong to severe convection will go over us
during prime heating bringing the threat of strong to severe storms
to the area. I have explicitly mentioned severe storms in the
forecast tomorrow given the wind threat (SPC has us "hatched" (G80
mph) in the wind category for tomorrow). /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Friday Night: The end of the work week will start off with some
active weather, and become quieter heading into Saturday. A fast
moving short wave will be ejecting across the region early Friday
evening, bringing a surge of forcing. As this wave races across the
area, it will shove rain showers and thunderstorms that blossomed
earlier in the day Friday across the higher terrain eastward across
the plains. While moisture will be mixed out by the evening hours,
modest moisture will remain in place. Given the support from the
wave and the minor moisture, a few strong, to possible severe,
thunderstorms are possible, with strong to severe winds the primary
hazard given the high based nature of thunderstorms and large DCAPE
values. With all of that said, as the axis of the wave passes and
forcing lessens, along with any diurnal instability lessening,
precipitation is anticipated to decrease in coverage by mid to late
Friday evening, with dry conditions thereafter for Friday night. As
for temperatures, a mild night is anticipated for south central and
southeastern Colorado, with low temperatures dropping to around
seasonal values.

Saturday: The start of the weekend will be the first day of a
downtrend in active weather for south central and southeastern
Colorado. Flow will become predominantly westerly behind an exiting
wave. While overall forcing will lessen, minor orographic forcing
will continue. Given this, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected along the mountains during the afternoon,
when the best overlap of forcing and instability is anticipated. The
greatest hazard from any thunderstorms will be gusty winds, small
hail, and lightning. As the day progresses and instability starts to
wane during the evening, any precipitation across the area is
expected to quickly weaken and dissipate, with dry conditions
expected overnight. Looking at temperatures, a "cooler" day is
anticipated, though much of the area will still remain above
seasonal temperatures for mid June.

Sunday - Wednesday: For the rest of the long term period, the
quieter weather continues. Southwest flow will prevail over south
central and southeastern Colorado. No major synoptic forcing is
anticipated with this pattern, and given that, mostly dry conditions
are anticipated for the region. With that said though, weak
orographic forcing over the mountains may help to initiate a shower
or two along the mountains each afternoon. Temperatures during this
timeframe will remain relatively hot and above seasonal values, with
the hottest temperatures expected Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today with high based
showers possible producing gusty outflow winds. These will be
most likely to occur at KCOS so will keep another hour of -SHRA
with tempo gusts to 35 kts through 01z. Window for gusty winds
should close rapidly after that. A cold front will keep gusty
east to northeast winds at KCOS and KPUB through 04z with gusts
up to 30 kts possible. Winds decrease overnight but pick up
again on Friday ahead of a potent disturbance. This will send a
line of high based showers and thunderstorms across southern CO
with best chances for TSRA at KCOS and KPUB as it moves off the
mountains. Gusts up to 45 kts will accompany thunderstorms
though small hail and brief heavy rainfall will be possible
especially for KCOS. This line should move east of the terminals
by the end of the 24 hour TAF period with clearing skies. -KT

&&


.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-
093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT
CLIMATE...STEWARD