Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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835 FXUS65 KPUB 170540 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1140 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Better chance of strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon across the plains. - Showers with isold thunder this afternoon, some small hail and gusty winds possible. - Dry and breezy Wednesday and Thursday. Some critical fire weather conditions are expected for the eastern plains. - Cooler and wetter conditions possible this weekend, though there is still some uncertainty in the models. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Currently... A broad band of showers was noted over the southeast plains extending from near Arlington to west of Trinidad. Over most of the region skies were cloudy and a few ltg flashes were noted over the interior mtns. Temps varied considerably over the region, with 90s over the far eastern plains and mid 70s over the I-25 corridor region. Over the mtns/valleys, temps ranged from around 40F into the 50s. winds were gusty in places from the southwest, especially over the far eastern plains. Rest of today into tonight... Main concern will be broad area of light precip will moving across the plains the rest of the afternoon. However, a bit of a more concern will be the potential for some stronger storms over the mtns, and possibly the far eastern plains. All of this precip is associated with an impressive closed trough over over the greater Lake Tahoe region and a band of moisture lifting up from New Mexico/Arizona region. for later tonight, showers are expected to continue over the interior mtns and valleys, especially over the CONTDVD. Tomorrow... There will be a better chance of strong to severe storms over the region during the afternoon time period. Quite a few parameters will be coming into place, as the best forcing will be coming across during prime heating. HREF shear will be 30 to 40 knts and CAPE values will be in the 500 to 1000 Joules range. There will likely be a broken band of thunderstorms moving across the plains during the afternoon time period, and given the parameters in place, some of the storms will be locally strong to severe. The storms will form over the mtns during the late morning and will move across the plains during the afternoon. The storms should clear out by early to mid evening. As for temps tomorrow, expect 80s along the I-25 corridor, U80 to L90s far eastern plains, around 70 in the larger valleys and 40s to 60s mtns. Highest mtn tops should become white with the precip that will fall on and off during the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty from the south-southwest tomorrow. One thing that should be mentioned. if the sfc winds are backed more than fcst (.e, sfc winds southeasterly), then the severe threat will be greater. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Wednesday-Thursday... Dry and breezy conditions will set in across the area Weds-Thurs. Looking at the mid and upper-level patterns, an upper low will pass just to our north as a second low digs down over the California coastline. With that, increasing southwest flow will move in across Colorado both days. The current forecast shows temperatures continuing near or above seasonal averages, with highs in the 80s-90s over the plains and 70s over the valleys. Meanwhile, models have been consistent on keeping the dry airmass in place, resulting in some spotty critical fire weather conditions each afternoon. As of now, best chance for more widespread fire danger is over some parts of our southeast plains. Friday Onwards... While there is still a bit of uncertainty amongst the model solutions heading into this weekend, a few things remain clear in the overall pattern. The upper low from the west will move into our area, tracking over parts of Colorado by Saturday and bringing some moist, cooler air. Friday will serve as something of a transition day, with winds becoming more southerly and POPs starting to increase across the area. High temperatures on Saturday will drop several degrees as the low moves in, with most of the area remaining around 80s degrees in the afternoon. The vast majority of the precipitation on Saturday will shift north of our area, through parts of the higher terrain and the Palmer Divide specifically could be seeing scattered showers, with isolated POPs elsewhere. Models show a front moving down over the plains sometime Saturday evening/night, which will cool temperatures further and increase precipitation chances across the area late this weekend. This part of the forecast will largely depend on the timing, placement, and intensity of the incoming low. The GFS and Canadian are on the aggressive side of the models as of now, with a stronger and faster closed low. Meanwhile, the EC is lagging several hours behind. The timing of the low as well as the associated front will have a notable impact on high temperatures and precipitation, so will have to see how things develop over the next few days. In general though, a cooler and wetter pattern is expected this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1128 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be primarily southwesterly tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to around 30-35kt at KCOS and KPUB. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of all three terminals, with the potential for storms to move on station as well. The most likely time frames for thunderstorms over and near KALS will be from 18Z until 00Z tomorrow, and from 20Z until 01Z for KCOS and KPUB. Small hail, and gusty and erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms will be possible near the terminals tomorrow. Thunderstorms will clear to the east after 01z with VFR conditions and decreasing winds expected. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...KT