521
FXUS65 KPUB 242042
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
242 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer on Wednesday

- Upper high remains over the region with dry conditions and above
  normal temperatures through the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to build over Colorado tonight and
Wednesday, bringing clear skies and warm temperatures to the region.
With clear skies/light winds/dry air in place overnight, NBM
continues to run several degf too warm for min temps in most high
mountain valleys, and dropped readings back toward persistence/MOS
guidance. On Wednesday, with ridge overhead and warm mid-levels,
expect max temps deep into the 80s on the plains, which will be well
above seasonal averages but still several degf cooler than daily
records. Winds at most locations Wed will stay generally less than
15 mph with ridge overhead, though a few spots near the KS border,
where surface pressure gradient is tighter, could gust toward 20 mph
for a few hours in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper high remains in control of the region with the blocking
pattern continuing through the end of the week.  Temperatures will
remain above normal with Thursday being the warmest day of the week.
Readings may approach or exceed 90 across portions of the plains,
and locations like KCOS and KALS could get within a couple degrees
of their record highs, though look to stay just shy.

A weak wave will ride overtop the ridge late week sending a weak
cool front into the region.  Some models (EC/Canadian) bring a
modest increase in mid/high level moisture with this wave which gets
caught within the upper ridge bringing the potential for repeated
high based isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms for Friday
and perhaps over the weekend. However, this looks overdone and drier
GFS looks the way to go.  A minor cool down comes in for Friday and
Saturday, though temperatures will still be above normal.   Another
weak wave passes by to the north Sunday night into Monday, though
once again, moisture looks scant and forecast leans towards a dry
scenario with continued above normal temperatures into early next
week. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all 3 TAF sites, KCOS,KPUB, AND
KALS, for the next 24 hrs. Upper level clouds are expected to
clear out by the end of today. Winds will be diurnally
driven. However, do anticipate COS winds will maintain a
northeasterly component until late afternoon. Do have COS
becoming light southerly early this evening, but could easily
see a period of light and variable winds during that time period
before they turn northerly once again.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...AC/SR