234
FXUS65 KPUB 162029
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions with low chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms are once again expected on Monday.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support critical fire weather
conditions again on Monday. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded
to a Red Flag Warning.

- Cold front moves in Tuesday, leading to some uncertainty with
timing. Warm temperatures, fire weather, and incoming precipitation
are on the table.

- Daily showers and storms expected mid-late week as our next
  system moves through, starting on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Hot conditions are in place this afternoon with many locations
across the plains currently in the upper 90s to around 100. Given
sunny to partly cloudy skies and increasing south southwest winds,
anticipate the highest temps to still rise to around 105 degrees
this afternoon and with no changes made to the Heat Advisory in
place. With daytime mixing and the increasing surface winds/gusts,
have seen dew points really mix out today. RH values will continue
to fall well below 15 percent and with the stronger winds, will see
critical fire weather conditions persist through early this evening,
once again for areas where fuels are critical. Latest radar imagery
is showing some isolated precip development across southeast Baca
county right along the moisture/instability axis. Can`t rule out a
stronger storm in this location this afternoon with strong gusty
winds the main hazards with any stronger development.

Similar setup on Monday with deep west southwest flow in place.
700mb temps don`t look to be as high on Monday, but still expect
another hot, dry, and windy day. Highest temps will be in the upper
90s to low 100s across the plains on Monday, and given the slightly
lower temps, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory at this time
and will later shifts reassess the need. Additional drying on Monday
will support another day with low RH values and as southwest
winds/gusts ramp up once again, will see critical fire weather
conditions develop. Did upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning. Moisture and instability axis wants to linger right along
the CO/KS border on Monday with similar isolated shower and
thunderstorm development possible in the afternoon. While confidence
is low, CAMs do show some development across the eastern plains, and
so have added some slight chance pops to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tuesday...

An upper-level trough will continue pushing into our region from the
northwest, with a tightening pressure gradient and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft for the first part of Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the surface winds across the eastern plains will be from the south-
southeast. High temperatures and critical fire weather conditions
will largely depend on the speed of the incoming cold front,
currently slated to move across the area a bit later in the day.
Timing is still our biggest challenge with Tuesday`s overall
forecast, with the NAM bringing the front in quickly mid-morning
while the GFS waits until evening. The NBM is leaning a bit later on
in the day as well, with the slower solutions leading to warmer
highs and increased chances for critical fire weather conditions out
ahead of the front. Current forecast has highs in the 90s over the
plains and 80s across the higher terrain and valleys. Precipitation
chances are not particularly high or widespread at the moment, once
again largely dependent on the behavior of the front. Models have
consistently shown some showers over Pikes Peak due to upsloping,
as well as some showers and storms over the far eastern plains and
into Kansas where the moisture tap is stronger and more consistent,
along with a stronger pressure gradient. Any precipitation in those
areas should start late-afternoon into early evening and last into
the overnight hours.

Wednesday-Thursday...

The trough moves in on Wednesday, with post-frontal easterly upslope
across the plains and continued shower activity east of the border
into the morning hours. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler
behind the front as well, with 70s-80s across the area along with
increased cloud cover. Thanks to the passing system and easterly
flow, showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon
and evening hours, first forming over the mountains before pushing
east through the remainder of the day. At this time, instability and
shear parameters don`t appear supportive of widespread severe
weather, but a few stronger storms over the plains are well within
possibility.

A disorganized upper ridge will begin to build in on Thursday, with
embedded wave energy allowing for another active day in terms of
showers and storms along with warming temperatures. Warmer
temperatures lead to some increase CAPE across the area, with the
chance for stronger storms increasing, but overall shear appears
marginal and not overly supportive of severe convection. However,
due to the abundant moisture in place, both Wednesday and Thursday
will see the potential for heavy rain from slow-moving storms,
leading to more flooding concerns.

Friday Onwards...

Model solutions diverge near the end of the week, but hint at a new
upper trough moving in from the west coast. Embedded energy within
the flow and residual moisture, coupled with breezy west-southwest
flow aloft, could lead to continued shower and thunderstorms
development each day. Coverage, intensity, and chances for severe
weather will depend on the behavior of the upper level pattern as we
get closer to date. Additionally, temperatures will warm once again,
with highs climbing into the mid-90s across the plains by Friday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected this forecast
period. Lighter winds still in place at the terminals, but
expect this to quickly change as south to southwest winds/gusts
increase through the afternoon. Highest gusts will be in the mid
to upper 20 kt range at all sites this afternoon. PUB will
likely be light and variable or become more east southeast for a
couple of hours, before shifting to the south southwest by mid
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-221-
223>227-232-233-237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-221-
223>227-232-233-237.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ077-083>086-
089-093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ