555
FXUS65 KPUB 132307
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
507 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions expected for the start of the weekend.

- Active returns Sunday, with showers and storms across the region,
and a chance for a strong storm across the plains.

- Showers and storms persist through parts of next week, though
coverage is likely to be less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Tonight: Relatively quiet conditions are expected Friday night for
south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will lessen and become
predominantly westerly to southwesterly behind an exiting wave.
Along with that, drier air will start to advect over the area. With
decreasing forcing and drier air, dry conditions are anticipated for
the region. Otherwise, mild temperatures, light winds, and
occasional high level clouds are expected. Looking at temperatures,
much of south central and southeastern Colorado will hover around
seasonal lows, with the plains dropping into the 50s, the valleys
falling into the 30s to mid 40s, and the mountains cooling into the
30s.

Tomorrow: The relatively quiet weather continues for Saturday as
well. Messy westerly to southwesterly flow will persist, with an
amorphous shortwave slowly passing over the area. Forcing will
remain modest, with drier air remaining in place. With the dry air
and weak forcing, dry conditions will continue for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Otherwise, warm temperatures, light winds,
and afternoon clouds are anticipated. Focusing on temperatures,
above seasonal values for mid September are expected, with the
plains rising into the mid 80s to low 90s, the valleys reaching into
the mid 70s to low 80s, and the mountains reaching into the 50s to
low 60s.

Saturday Night: The quiet weather persist into Saturday night as
well. The messy westerly to southwesterly flow will remain in place.
Forcing will be more meager, and with the drier air still
prevailing, dry conditions will continue for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Otherwise, cool temperatures, light winds,
and mostly clear skies are anticipated. Temperatures overnight will
sink to around seasonal values for mid September, with the plains
cooling into the 50s, the valleys falling into the 30s to mid 40s,
and the mountains dropping into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Sunday: For the end of the weekend, active weather starts to return
for south central and southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly flow will
start to develop over the area as broad troughing materializes
across the western US. In addition to that, moisture will start to
increase over the region. With the increasing flow/forcing and
moisture, showers and storms will blossom over the area,
particularly over and immediately around the mountains. Along with
that, an isolated storm or two may develop across the plains, which
could become strong given modest instability and shear over that
region, with strong outflow winds the primary hazard, though
confidence in development is low (20-30%) at this time. With that
all said though, any showers or storms present during the afternoon
and early evening hours is expected to dissipate during the mid to
late evening hours as diurnal instability wanes. For the rest of the
day, warm temperatures, breezy winds, and more afternoon clouds are
expected. Temperatures for much of the region will warm to above
seasonal values for mid September.

Monday - Thursday: For much of next week the relatively active
weather continues. Southwesterly flow will continue across the
region as broad troughing persist across the western US. With the
heightened flow and forcing still in place, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms are still anticipated, though drier air
advecting over the area during the week may limit precipitation
coverage, especially across the mountains. In addition, strong
storms may still be a concern throughout this period across the
plains, though confidence is low (20-30%) in development within
Colorado, as trillions ebb and flow across the far eastern
plains of Colorado in response to waves within the broader
synoptic flow. Otherwise, the warm temperatures continue, with
breezy conditions and more afternoon and evening clouds. As for
temperatures, yes the warmth does continue, as much of the
region is anticipated to remain above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals.
A few wind gusts near 20 to 25 kts will continue at KALS and
KCOS this evening, but will quickly dissipate.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY