Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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442 FXUS65 KPUB 060432 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1032 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A tad cooler tomorrow across southeast Colorado with a few afternoon showers and storms possible across the higher terrain. - Wet conditions beginning Friday and lasting into Monday could bring localized flooding concerns to southern Colorado. - A few strong to severe storms may be possible on the Plains Friday and again Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Subsidence under the building ridge evident across south central Colorado, with the only clouds on satellite being some CU along a moisture boundary across eastern Las Animas and Baca counties, as well as some CU across the northern mountains and the northeast Colorado Plains, associated with a passing wave across the northern Rockies. Warming aloft along with the sunny skies has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s across the Plains at this time, with current readings in the 60s to lower 80s across the high mountain valleys and the higher terrain. For Tonight and Thursday...The northern Rockies passing wave sends a weak northerly surge across eastern Colorado later this evening, with easterly low level upslope progged to develop across the southeast Colorado Plains later tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. This will lead to a slight increase in available moisture, with latest model data indicating some modest cape across the lower eastern slopes by tomorrow afternoon. This will allow for some cu buildups and a few possible -shra and maybe even an isolated -tsra over and near the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon. Any storm that can develop will be high based, producing more wind than rain. With the upslope flow, high temperatures across the plains will be slightly cooler than today, though likely still in the 80s to lower 90s, with highs across south central Colorado at or slightly warmer than today`s values. As for lows tonight, I did lower current NBM values some, especially across the high mountains valleys, where radiational cooling will be maximized. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 There is overall model agreement and reduced ensemble spreads through Monday, with differences showing up for early to mid next week. Increasing moisture on Friday will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday, and remaining in the forecast through Monday. The primary concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall along the Eastern Mountains, out into the Plains. With this shower and thunderstorm activity will come relief from the hot temperatures. Beyond Monday, much uncertainty exists with the overall pattern evolution, but most guidance points towards drier conditions. Thursday night and Friday...a weak upper wave embedded in the northwest flow will likely spark a few showers and thunderstorms across the Palmer Divide, and slide them southeast across the Plains, remaining north of Highway 50 late Thursday night into Friday morning. This will likely produce areas of light, spotty rain during the overnight hours. One last hot day is expected on Friday, with highs across the region in the 80s to pushing 100 degrees on the Plains. Increased moisture and energy moving across Colorado will lead to shower and thunderstorm development by Friday afternoon, initiating over the Mountains. This activity will shift east into the Plains Friday evening, clearing to the east by Saturday morning. There is a low risk of a few strong to severe storms Friday late afternoon and evening over our northeast zones (Kiowa, Bent and Prowers Counties). The main threats may be wind and large hail. Saturday into Monday...the upper ridge is forecast to build across the Great Basin over the weekend, while upper troughing drops south out of Canada into the Great Lakes. The main model difference over the weekend is the track of the Canadian system. The GFS is further east, dropping the low into the Great Lakes, while the ECMWF is further west. All model solutions drop a cold front across the Plains Saturday morning, further increasing moisture across the Plains, and turning low level flow upslope easterly. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by midday and spread eastward into the I-25 corridor through the afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms may be possible given the shear profile and expected instability. Large hail and gusty winds would be the primary concerns. Continued moist, upslope flow is expected on Sunday across all of southern Colorado. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon and evening. These storms will likely be efficient precipitation producers, and local flooding possible, especially for areas that see heavy rain on Saturday. The severe threat looks less on Sunday, with SBCAPE values only around 500 j/kg. There could still be small hail and gusty winds to accompany the heavy rainfall. Monday looks similar to Sunday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms, initially developing over the Mountains, and spreading east into the Plains. Once again, localized flooding may be a concern with areas that see several days of heavy rainfall. Overall, temperatures will be much cooler over the weekend into Monday, with most areas in the 70s to lower 80s across the region. Tuesday into Wednesday...model guidance and ensemble spreads increase by mid week, but all point to drier conditions as high pressure looks to build out west. Afternoon highs will also be on the rise, with 70s to upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity should also become more isolated to scattered in nature. Mozley && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be mainly diurnally influenced but then become more synoptically influenced at all terminals and will become gusty out of the S-SW at KALS and KCOS, and SE at KPUB, during the afternoon through early evening hours tomorrow. These winds will weaken towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Recent warm temperatures are producing rapid snowmelt over the higher terrain along the upper reaches of the Arkansas River, from the headwaters near Leadville, down to near Canon City. Water levels and flows are forecast to increase over the coming days. At this time, river levels are expected to remain below flood stage, however, swift flows and cold water temperatures will be dangerous. Stay away from fast flowing water! Periods of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Monday, mainly over the Eastern Mountains, down into the I-25 corridor. This could lead to localized flash flooding, especially on area burn scars, and urban areas. This heavy rainfall, along with localized snow melt could also lead to rises on area streams and rivers. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...STEWARD HYDROLOGY...MOZLEY