891
FXUS62 KRAH 211803
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will track southeast through the Mid
Atlantic region tonight. A back-door cold front will move south
through the area late Sunday followed by surface high pressure
extending south into the area through much of the upcoming work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Saturday...

A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is progged by all of
the HREF members to develop to our north this evening then drift S
and SE across our CWA between 04-10Z tonight... all in response to
the weak short wave trough that is currently crossing the Ohio
Valley, which is forecast to move ESE across the Mid Atlantic region
tonight and move off the coast by Sunday morning.  In the meantime,
we`ll see intervals of sct-bkn shallow cu the remainder of the
daytime hours today, esp west of US-1 where currently the best
moisture and instability is located... then high clouds moving in
this evening out ahead of the upstream shower/tstm activity. Then
during the hours right before daybreak, there could be a couple
hours of patchy fog, esp locations the see the greatest coverage of
showers/tstms overnight. Lows tonight in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will progress eastward through the
srn/ctl Appalachians and into the Carolinas through Sun night.
Central NC should be under nwly flow on the northeast periphery of
the ridge. At the surface, a low will continue sliding sewd through
central NC Sun morn/aft. A backdoor cold front should slide south
through the area Sun aft/eve, with high pressure ridging in behind
it. There could be some lingering showers across the east Sun
morning. Additional showers/storms could slide swd through the
Coastal Plain/far ern Piedmont Sun eve/night as the backdoor front
slides southward through the area. There could be about a 10 degree
spread in highs from SW to NE due to the front, around 90 degrees SW
to low 80s NE. Lows could drop to around 60 degrees in the northeast
Sun night, with generally mid 60s expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

Warm with isolated showers to start the week...

A trough brings a bit cooler temperatures late week, then
potentially wet weather again next weekend.

Ridging will build in from the Tennessee Valley region early in the
week, with a surface high pressure extending down the eastern
seaboard from eastern Canada. A weak backdoor front is expected to
move to southern NC and potentially stall Monday keeping the
southern tier in the 80s both Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the mid
70s to around 80 are favored over the northern and northeastern
sections. There is only a slight to low chance of mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms south and northwest Monday. The chance of
mainly afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms should
return to most areas Tuesday as the upper ridge moves east.

Wednesday into Thursday, models have slowed the cold front down a
bit with the 12z/Thursday cold front position potentially still over
western NC. This occurs as troughing develops from the
Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians by the weekend. The
cold front is expected to push to the coast by Friday This would
favor the best chance of showers/storms Wednesday into Thursday
(capped POP for now at 40-50 percent), and highest during the PM
hours. POP would be lower behind the front Friday along with
with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 by
Friday and Saturday. Some lows will dip into the 50s over the north
and west.

An important note late week into the weekend, NHC is tracking the
potential development of a tropical depression (60 percent chance of
formation) over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of
Mexico late next week. If something were to form, its energy could
get pulled northward into the Deep South by the aforementioned
trough next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 203 PM Saturday...

Through 18Z Sunday:  Currently seeing VFR conditions across central
NC attm, with the exception of very local bkn shallow cu around 3k
ft agl invof the Triad region.  Otherwise, a cluster of showers and
storms are expected to move across much of central NC overnight,
first across the Triad including KINT/KGSO as early as 04Z, then
across KRDU about 06-08Z, then KRWI/KFAY between 08-10Z. These
showers/tstm could briefly result in MVFR cigs/vsby with any of the
heavier showers.  Then between 09-12Z, patchy MVFR fog may develop,
esp where the heavier rain falls.  VFR conditions will return after
12Z Sunday.

After 18Z Sunday: Mainly VFR conditions expected each day, with the
exception of sub-VFR fog/stratus each morning. There is a chance for
mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms each day, which could also
briefly reduce flt conditions at times.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...np