496
FXUS62 KRAH 131740
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high will remain over the Carolinas for much of the week,
allowing diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

The back-door cold front that sank into northeastern North Carolina
had dissipated by this morning, with minimal convergence looking at
surface observations. However, convection has blossomed earlier
today than it did yesterday, with the majority of the thunderstorms
to the northeast of Raleigh, along with some showers across southern
counties. Coverage is expected to expand west through the day with
30-50% coverage across the area. Much of the northeastern portion of
the forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
weather this afternoon, with the primary threat coming from damaging
wind gusts. In addition, all locations are under a marginal (level 1
of 4) risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon. As the convection
is diurnally-driven, coverage should diminish during the evening and
come to an end shortly after midnight. Lows will be in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

There will be minimal change in the surface pattern, although it
appears that a weak trough will try to cross the region tomorrow.
This should result in slightly greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, ranging between 40-60% with the greatest focus likely
along the US-1 corridor. There is a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall Monday, primarily to the north of US 64, with a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall elsewhere. With
their afternoon update, the Storm Prediction Center has added areas
north and west of Raleigh to a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe weather, with damaging winds the primary threat. Slightly
greater cloud coverage should keep highs a degree or two cooler than
today, although lows should remain similar.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

A surface front currently extending from Quebec through Michigan and
into Texas should eventually become oriented east-west north of the
Mason-Dixon Line on Tuesday. The front will drop south along the
Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday, and this should increase
coverage of precipitation to 60-80% for Tuesday and Wednesday. That
front will then fade out, with the next front likely not slipping
any farther south than Virginia. Without the influence of a front,
the daily precipitation chances will drop back to 40-60%, with the
greatest chances in the Triad each day as storms form along the
mountains. With a minimal change in air mass, expect little change
in highs and lows through the extended period, with highs/low near
climatology values of 90/70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

Storms have developed along a surface convergence axis across the
eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. The strongest storms are
presently between RDU and RWI. Developing outflow boundaries should
allow convection to impact these two terminals, with the favored
time window of 18 to 23z. Storms are also expected to impact FAY
along this surface boundary during this same time frame, though
confidence is somewhat less for IFR conditions. Confidence is the
lowest for storms reaching GSO and INT, so have kept the PROB30
group in place between 20z and 01z Mon. A late-evening batch of
scattered showers could impact these terminals between 02 and 05z
with a weak disturbance aloft, but confidence was too low to
introduce sub-VFR restrictions. A period of IFR to LIFR conditions
in possible fog is expected at RDU, FAY, and RWI, with the highest
confidence at RWI and FAY. VFR should prevail after sunrise, with
scattered showers and storms possible again by 18z Mon.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western and swrn N.
Atlantic will favor a typical summertime regime of scattered aft-eve
convection and patchy fog/stratus, with the latter likely to shift
from the Coastal Plain (ie. RWI and FAY) early week to the wrn
Piedmont and Foothills (ie. GSO/INT) by mid-week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Kren/MWS