336
FXUS62 KRAH 160524
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
123 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain pinned south of central North
Carolina through tonight then pivot up across western North Carolina
through Sunday. High pressure will extend into the region from the
Atlantic through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Saturday...

A 1022mb surface high pressure located over the Great Lakes this
evening will continue shifting eastward toward New England tonight
behind a cold front that has settled and stalled south of our area.
Behind the front dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s and upper
50s, especially across the north.  The seabreeze has been
penetrating inland aggressively this evening and allowing some
elevated dewpoints to also penetrate back inland.  There
is relatively good model agreement that moisture confined to a
shallow layer below a strong subsidence inversion at 700mb, will
shift westward into the western Piedmont overnight with increasing
easterly low-level flow flow around the high to our north.  The NAM
even suggest a tongue of up to 1000 MUCAPE nosing toward the Triad
by 09Z, and while that amount of CAPE may be overdone, the HRRR has
been consistent in developing some showers in the western Piedmont
by daybreak.  There is some evidence of the shower activity in the
southern NC mountains already this evening.  If the showers do not
develop prior to sunrise, the moisture convergence should be
available for isolated showers through mid morning, with a fair
amount of stratus or stratocu. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

A strong ~593dm upper level anticyclone will shift eastward and will
become centered over NC.  Underneath the associated 30 meter H5
rises, surface high centered over New England will ridge south down
the mid-Atlantic and Carolina seaboard.

Differential heating and terrain-induced lift via low-level SELY
flow along the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians will
support scattered showers and storms across the NC mtns and
foothills during the afternoon and evening. Given proximity to this
weak forcing and/or associated outflow, cannot rule out a stray
shower across the far western counties. Otherwise, dry conditions
will persist.

The low-level easterly maritime flow into the area will also result
in slightly cooler daytime highs. Highs ranging from mid 80s north
to lower 90s south, with noticeably less humid air, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area near the low-level
ridge axis where dewpoints will lower into the 50s.

Lows Sunday night 63-68 with some patchy fog/stratus possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

...Hot and dry next week with increasing temperatures and minimal
rain chances...

The forecast for much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather
with increasingly warm temperatures. An anomalously strong H5 ridge
(with heights around 592-594dm) will center itself over NC on Monday
and remain virtually stationary through the middle of the week. At
the surface, high pressure off the coast will promote a prolonged
period of southeasterly winds through Wednesday. While there will be
some moisture on the periphery of the ridge, it`s likely to pool
against the mountains to our west with any potential for showers or
storms confined to areas of the far western Piedmont. Elsewhere,
it`ll be a challenge to get much more than high clouds across the
area given strong subsidence throughout the column. Temperatures for
the first half of the week should range from the low to mid 90s,
with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Thursday the ridge will strengthen further and begin to shift
northward. By late week, 500mb heights are forecast to approach 596-
597dm which would be near record values at KGSO for mid June. At the
surface, this will translate to even warmer temperatures with late
week highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s. Return flow from the
ridge will serve to advect additional moisture into the area and
precip chances will increase, but only slightly. Strong subsidence
aloft will likely limit the potential for any widespread/beneficial
precipitation across the area but afternoon pulse-type showers could
potentially become more common by next weekend. Grand ensemble still
only suggesting 10-15 percent PoPs late in the week which is
certainly higher than earlier in the week, but still below climo. Of
note: there are some 12Z ensemble members that suggest a subtropical
plume of moisture and troughing will enter the area late in the week
but exactly how that evolves and what (if any) forcing mechanism
comes into play is still very uncertain.

In terms of sensible weather impacts next week, increasing
temperatures could be problematic for individuals that are sensitive
to heat. While Heat Index values will generally stay out of the
triple digits through next Saturday (thanks in large part to
dewpoints in the 60s vs the 70s), other heat tools such as Wet Bulb
Globe Temperature (which takes into account full exposure to the sun
along with wind speeds and humidity) and HeatRisk (which examines
temperatures relative to climatology along with CDC data) suggest
next weekend`s conditions could warrant the first heat-related
headlines of the year for portions of central NC. However, the
chance of showers and storms and associated cloud cover could keep
conditions below dangerous values, adding to the uncertainty of next
weekend`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period under dry
high pressure. A stray mountain shower could move into the Triad
region early this morning, but confidence is too low to include in
the KINT/KGSO TAFs. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely pool across
the foothills/mountains later this morning. It`s not quite clear
whether some of these lower ceilings will trickle over KINT/KGSO,
however there is enough guidance suggesting they will warranting a
continued TEMPO group at both sites between ~09 and 12Z.  Any
lingering stratus will lift through mid morning. Expect dry VFR
conditions to then prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:  Some early morning stratus could be possible especially at
KINT/KGSO Monday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett/Kren
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Luchetti