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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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795 FXUS62 KRAH 180707 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 306 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. Moisture will increase across the area late this week into this weekend, bringing some increased rain chances to the Sandhills/Southern Coastal Plain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 306 AM Tuesday... The anomalous upper ridge remains anchored over the eastern US as seen on water vapor imagery this morning. At the sfc, a 1022 mb high was observed over southwestern VA. Light ssely sfc flow continues over central NC, with noticeably lower dew points present over our area (lower to mid 60s) compared to along and west of the mountains (lower 70s). As such, the instability axis and any linger showers are well west of our area. Yet another day of dry and hot weather is expected as the upper ridge remains anchored over the northeast US. The main moisture axis will continue to push well west and north of our area. In fact, PWAT is forecast to drop to between ~70 to 80 % of normal by this afternoon. Given this, dew points should mix out into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon. So while high temperatures will once again reach the upper 80s/lower 90s, heat indices will remain well below advisory criteria. Regardless, we continue to recommend practicing heat safety if spending considerable amount of time outdoors today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 106 AM Tuesday... The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to deepen across the mid- Atlantic/northeast US on Wednesday, with heights peaking 2 to 3 standard deviations above climatology. A stream of drier air will continue to advect across our area, as PWAT remains near ~70 to 80 % of normal. As such, dew points will once again mix out into the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs will once again max out in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday... The main story in the extended continues to be the heat risk, especially the latter part of the weekend into early next week. Rain chances look to slowly ramp up during this time as well, with the best chances appearing early next week. An anomalously strong 598 dm ridge will extend into the area from the Atlantic and northern Mid-Atlantic through the first half of the weekend. At the surface, this will translate to a broad area of high pressure over the northern Atlantic that will promote largely dry and increasingly hot temperatures into early next week. The bulk of the heat looks to happen late Fri and Sat, lingering potentially into early next week. High temperatures Thu will start out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, rising into the mid to upper 90s over the weekend and perhaps lingering into Mon. Heat indices in the upper 90s are expected to rise into the triple digits over the upcoming weekend, perhaps as high as 105 in portions of the Triangle. As we head into late Sun and the first part of next week, a number of ensemble solutions are showing potential influence from a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes that will try to bring an approaching cold front in from the northwest. At the same time, the mid-level ridge appears to weaken and move east over the southwest Atlantic. This pattern shift could allow for an uptick in showers and storms, particularly by late Sun and Mon as a front approaches and a lee trough sets up. In addition to a front, there may also be some influence from a surface trough currently located east of the Bahamas. NHC currently notes that this disturbance could move into a favorable area for potential tropical development as it tracks west-northwestward. It currently has a 30-percent chance of development as it tracks toward the coast of the southeast US late Thu or Fri. While a number of the GEFS/ECS members show some kind of low approaching the coast, there remains a lot of uncertainty on its track and what strength it would be if it does indeed develop. For what its worth, the latest GFS continues the theme of some open wave moving along the Carolinas Fri/Sat and perhaps Sun before lifting off on Mon, but there has been little run-to-run consistency. If any system were to take a track along the SE US, it could bring more cloud cover and increased rain chances ahead of next week`s front, thereby possibly resulting in somewhat lower highs than currently anticipated. As it stands now, Thu/Fri/Sat are largely expected to be dry, with any rain chances mainly confined with the sea-breeze over the Sandhills to southern Coastal Plain. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period as dry high pressure remains anchored over central NC. Light ssely sfc flow will continue through the period. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions should persist through Friday. Moisture and the chance for showers will return this weekend, especially near KFAY/KRDU/KRWI. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Leins NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...Luchetti