![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
275 FXUS62 KRAH 221852 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will remain in control ahead of a weak upper level trough that will move across the Middle Atlantic on Sunday. A pre-frontal trough and weak cold front will move into NC Monday afternoon and night, then lift northeastward across the Middle Atlantic as a warm front Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 233 PM Saturday... Central NC remains under the influence of a sfc high centered invof Bermuda and a mid-level ridge centered to our west. Moist sly low level flow has resulted in a gradually increasing humidity trend over the past 24 hours, and we`re now seeing heat indices currently in the mid to upper 90s area-wide, with a spots particularly across the eastern half of our cwa hovering around 100 where the ambient temps and dwpts are the highest. Peak heating will occur late this afternoon, then temps will gradually fall through the 80s during the evening hours and through the 70s overnight, with lows in the low- mid 70s. A few showers to our SE near the coast along the sea breeze may try to push inland toward southern Sampson County; otherwise, dry the rest of today and tonight. It`s also worth noting that very similar to earlier this morning, we`re expecting another period of stratus to form mainly along and south of a line from Roanoke Rapids to Raleigh to Albemarle between 4-8 AM Sunday as a result of the increasingly moist low levels. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Heights at 500mb will lower by 20-40m on Sunday as a shortwave crossing the northern US dips into a weakness in the upper ridge, with an associated cold front approaching the region Sunday night. Ahead of the front, the remnants of AL92 near Savannah today will begin to drift north in a further weakened state and become absorbed into the upper trough, with broad sw-rly flow across the region. That warm sw-rly flow should offset the slight weakening of the ridge and keep temps similar to today in the mid 90s. Soundings also once again suggest decent mixing and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which keeps heat indices in the 100-104 range in the east where heat advisory concerns would be greatest. Even if a few sites hit 105, a modest 10kt wind with occasional gusts to 15-20kt should also keep the heat from feeling overly oppressive, and wet bulb globe temps remain in mostly in the 84-86 range, suggesting only a moderate heat threat. Based on this and coordination with neighboring offices, we are not issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible across mainly the southern coastal plain associated with enhanced seabreeze and perhaps the weakening AL92 circulation during the afternoon and evening. Northern areas are initially capped but with heights aloft lowering there should be a weakening line of storms associated with a pre-frontal trough late in the evening. Poor diurnal timing will limit any severe threat. Given how dry forecasting soundings are, coverage should not be very high in either area., but individual showers and storms will produce gusty winds with high DCAPE and inverted V profiles. Overnight lows will be very muggy in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 353 AM Saturday... ...Dangerously hot temperatures expected early to mid week... As an upper level trough moves across the region Monday, ridging will build back in quickly by Wednesday. A second upper level trough will move across the region Thursday as weak upper level high pressure will slowly creep into the Mid-Atlantic region late week. At the surface, a weak cold front will make its way across the Appalachian mountains and into Central NC on Monday. As the front approaches dew points are expected to get into the mid/upper 70s in some areas resulting in another hot day. Monday rain chances will be isolated across much of the Piedmont region and more scattered to numerous over the Coast Plain region. Timing is still a little uncertain as some models show decaying of the precip as it moves across the region but for now have best/high chance in the afternoon to early evening especially over the Coastal Plain. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 90s in the NW to mid/upper 90s elsewhere. Tuesday is expected to be dry with the frontal boundary to the south of the region. However the far southeastern portions of the FA could see lingering showers Tuesday afternoon if the boundary stalls closer than anticipated. As surface high sits just off the Mid- Atlantic coast, Wednesday is expected to be oppressive as dew points are expected to get back into the low to mid 70s and temperatures warming up into the mid/upper 90s with a few triple digits in the warmer areas. Heat indices will be in the 100s almost everywhere with 105+ F heat indices around the Triangle and far southern portions of the Sandhills. Scattered showers will be possible especially across the western Piedmont and Sandhills Wednesday afternoon as moisture returns to the area, although chances remain low in the 20-30 percent range. Thursday into Friday another cold front is expected to move across the region bringing a better chance for showers and storms. Continuous model agreement has shown the best chance for precipitation will be in the afternoon and early evening hours. The frontal system is expected to move to the coast by Friday morning where like last time is expected to linger. This will result in afternoon showers and storms possible across the far southern portions of the CWA Friday and Saturday afternoons. Thursday will be warm ahead of the front with high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s. Temperatures are expected to cool down a little Friday and Saturday (but still 5-7 degrees above normal) with highs in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 136 PM Saturday... Through 18Z Sunday: The primary aviation concern through the 24 hour TAF period will be the chance for a period of low-MVFR or IFR cigs mainly along and south of a line from KIXA-KRDU-KVUJ between 08z-13Z Sunday. Outside of that flt reduction during that time frame, VFR conditions are expected with s to sw winds generally aob 10kt, with a few higher gusts after 14Z Sunday. After 18Z Sunday: An approaching cold front will support a slight chance of showers and storms and related sub-VFR restrictions late Sunday, with better coverage on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly dry before isolated showers and storms may return on Wednesday especially west. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022 ...Hot with Heat Indices Topping Out In the Upper 90s to Lower 100s... ...Continued Dry... June 23: KRDU: 100/1986 KFAY: 102/1981 June 24: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 102/1914 June 25: KRDU: 100/1952 KFAY: 102/1914 June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933 June 23: KGSO: 74/2015 KRDU: 77/1890 KFAY: 77/2017 June 24: KGSO: 76/2015 KRDU: 76/1888 KFAY: 79/2010 June 25: KGSO: 75/2015 KRDU: 77/2010 KFAY: 75/1952 June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997 June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...bls LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...np CLIMATE...RAH