Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
008 FXUS62 KRAH 190614 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 214 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lift northeast through Thursday and be replaced by high pressure that will gradually build into central North Carolina through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 PM Wednesday... The bulk of convective activity so far this evening has largely been associated with the the dampening upper wave/low moving east along the NC/SC line. In comparison, convection associated with the weak front draped across the far northern counties has been more sparse. Only time will tell if this trend will persist, but hi-res model guidance indicates that both these features will support a continued chance of isolated to widely scattered activity well into the overnight hours. Low overcast will overspread the area from north to south through the overnight hours. Some patchy fog may be possible, but guidance has lowered probabilities of fog in favor of mostly stratus. Overnight lows will settle in the mid/upper 60s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Aloft, the trough situated over the East Coast should slowly slide eastward through Thu night, but remain along/just off the East Coast by Fri morn as high pressure builds over the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a low will meander off the northern mid-Atlantic/New England Coast Thu/Thu night, while high pressure over the ern Great Lakes ridges swd along the Appalachians. Meanwhile, the low that has lingered over the northeast NC coast should shift esewd but linger just off the central NC coast Thu before moving further southeast over the Atlantic. Expect generally nly/nely flow across central NC through Thu night. Some showers may linger into Thu morning over the Piedmont. There could be a brief lull in activity before additional scattered showers and isolated storms develop Thu aft, mainly along lingering surface boundaries. Skies may remain mostly cloudy through Thu morn and into the aft, which could further limit daytime heating. Highs should top out in the mid 70s to low 80s, but could be a couple/few degrees higher if cloud cover decreases earlier that forecast. While the weather should dry out, there should be lingering partly to mostly cloudy skies Thu night, with lows expected to range from upper 50s north to mid 60s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Overall, the surface pattern for the extended forecast period should be relatively quiet. At the beginning of the period, high pressure will be over eastern Canada with a ridge extending to the southeast across the Carolinas. This will change little through the period until a cold front approaches the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. However, at mid/upper levels, there will be occasional ripples of energy moving across the western half of North Carolina. Friday through Tuesday all show minimal precipitation clipping the Triad in the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, yet with the exception of Monday, the deterministic models don`t show any precipitation during that time period. Having inherited a dry forecast and seeing little conclusive evidence in the models, am inclined to keep the forecast dry. However, Will go ahead and put in slight chance pops to the forecast for Wednesday afternoon across northwestern counties for the new day 7 forecast with the approaching front. Normal temperatures for late September are around 80 and 60 - forecast values are slightly above average for Friday through Sunday, then near average for Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 AM Thursday... A line of showers and isolated storms is currently draped along a boundary across the southern Piedmont and northern Sandhills, but it has remained stationary and is beginning to weaken. Guidance continues to show additional showers developing later tonight into mid morning around RDU and RWI. MVFR or IFR visibilities will be possible in any showers. Fog potential continues to look limited at best tonight given the widespread low stratus across most of central NC, but it can`t be totally ruled out especially in the far south (including FAY) where the low stratus will be slowest to reach. Otherwise, the low stratus is resulting in widespread IFR ceilings across the north (including INT/GSO/RDU/RWI), and they should lower further to LIFR over the next 2-3 hours. The IFR/LIFR ceilings should reach around FAY by 9-10z. Ceilings will gradually lift and scatter through the day, with MVFR by late morning and early afternoon, and VFR by late afternoon into the evening. After a brief lull in precipitation, scattered showers and isolated storms are possible in the south and east (including RDU, RWI and FAY) starting in the early afternoon, diminishing after 00z. Outlook: Areas of overnight and early morning fog/low stratus will remain possible Fri and Sat mornings, though coverage and chances appear less compared to previous days. Aviation conditions should largely trend VFR Sun and Mon. Precipitation chances will be minimal if any through the period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Swiggett NEAR TERM...CBL/Swiggett SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Danco/Kren