312
FXUS62 KRAH 140643
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Isolated flash flooding is again possible this afternoon and
evening, with marginal to slight risks in place. The highest
probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions.

There is also a marginal risk of a few damaging wet microbursts
with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening,
mainly over the Piedmont.

The combination of strong heating, very weak steering flow, left
over outflow boundaries, and high (2+ inches) precipitable water
will lead to scattered slow moving, heavy rain producing
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The highest
probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the
latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the
higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels
that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to
Hillsborough and Roxboro. Just as in recent days, high instability
will develop with heating. MLCapes will reach over 2500 j/kg and
this may lead to isolated damaging wind events, mainly in the
Piedmont region. Highs will be within a degree or two of the highs
Sunday. Expect mostly 90 to 95. The chance of thunderstorms will
linger well into the evening and early morning Tuesday. The highest
probabilities this evening appear to be over the north-central and
NE portions of the Piedmont into the Coastal Plain. Lows 70-75 with
patchy late night stratus and some fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 AM Monday...

The highest probabilities of thunderstorms and flash flooding may
shift slightly west Tuesday afternoon and evening as the guidance
and CAMS suggest the western Piedmont into the NW Piedmont may very
well have the higher chances of slow moving PM thunderstorms.
Combined with the existing wet soils and nearby urban locations,
there will still be at least a marginal risk of flash flooding on
Tuesday afternoon into the evening. There is still a chance of
thunderstorms in the south and east; however, ridging aloft should
extend a bit further inland Tuesday afternoon possibly limiting some
of the coverage of convection there. Highs 88-94 in general, with
lows 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

A surface front currently extending from Quebec through Michigan and
into Texas should eventually become oriented east-west north of the
Mason-Dixon Line on Tuesday. The front will drop south along the
Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday, and this should increase
coverage of precipitation to 60-80% for Tuesday and Wednesday. That
front will then fade out, with the next front likely not slipping
any farther south than Virginia. Without the influence of a front,
the daily precipitation chances will drop back to 40-60%, with the
greatest chances in the Triad each day as storms form along the
mountains. With a minimal change in air mass, expect little change
in highs and lows through the extended period, with highs/low near
climatology values of 90/70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 136 AM Monday...

Isolated showers will linger through 07z or 08z from near KINT to
near KRDU, otherwise a period of IFR to LIFR conditions in possible
fog is expected at RDU, FAY, and RWI, with the highest confidence at
RWI and FAY. VFR should prevail after sunrise, with scattered
showers and storms possible between 18z and 03z today and
tonight.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett