Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
249 FXUS65 KREV 251947 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1247 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Warm and breezy today with locally critical fire weather conditions. * Well above normal temperatures continue through the end of September. * Mixed bag as we head into October, with lower confidence in potential scenarios, but looking to remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... * We`re certainly into the warm side of early Fall through the end of the month with high temperatures running a solid 10-15 degrees above normal due to a strong ridge over the west. This will keep the pattern quiet with no chances for precipitation and a few periods of enhanced breezes. * A weak front brushing through the PacNW is producing slightly stronger southwest winds today, especially for areas closer to the Oregon border. This brings locally critical fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon and choppy lakes through this evening. For anyone recreating in the backcountry, be prepared for winds gusting around 60 mph along exposed ridgelines. This front will have little impact on cooling the region down, with only 2-4 degree drop for Thursday compared to today. * There may be a minor boost to wind speeds Saturday as another weak system brushes by to the north, but at this point ensemble guidance is even weaker than what we are seeing with wind speeds today. * Looking ahead, ensemble clusters are nearly an even split at 52% vs 48% with a deeper trough moving into the northwest vs the current ridge holding strong over the region by Oct 3-4. This is leading to significantly more spread in the blended guidance for temperatures and wind speeds. While confidence is lower with regard to those features, it is higher that we`ll remain dry. Chances for precipitation are only around 10-15% in even the "wetter" solutions. -Dawn && .AVIATION... * Increased southwest breezes will continue into this evening for terminal sites, especially for those near and north of Highway 50. Peak gusts will reach around 25 kts for terminal sites through 03z. * FL100 winds will remain elevated through Thursday, SW 25-30 kts, resulting in some light-moderate mountain wave turbulence. * Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions with lighter winds Thursday- Friday. -Dawn && .FIRE WEATHER... * Southwest winds sustained 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph will be common for areas near the I-580/US-395 corridor and portions of northwestern NV near the Oregon border through this evening. This combined with humidity values of 10-20% will bring locally critical conditions for a few hours this afternoon, especially for fire zones 270-278-458. Elsewhere, winds will be 5-10 mph lighter, but it will remain quite dry. * Conditions will remain dry with limited overnight recoveries, especially across western NV mid-slopes. Winds will remain gusty across exposed midslopes and ridges tonight, but will drop off in valley locations. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$