Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
247 FXUS65 KREV 282012 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 112 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Afternoon breezes diminish today, but return for the weekend, yielding elevated fire weather concerns. * Other than isolated thunderstorm chances for Lassen and northern Washoe counties Sunday afternoon, dry conditions are expected areawide through next week. * Seasonably warm temperatures through early next week then rise to well above average for the July 4th holiday weekend, with Moderate to locally High HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... Nearly textbook summer conditions are expected to continue today through the weekend as we settle between a broad ridge centered over the Plains and a shortwave trough nudging into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures remain near to slightly above seasonal averages, translating to highs in the low to mid 90s for western Nevada valleys and low 80s for Sierra communities. The aforementioned trough begins to move inland on Sunday, bringing enhanced afternoon westerly breezes this weekend with widespread gusts 20-30 mph each afternoon. Plan on choppy lakes and brief periods of localized critical fire weather. This system will also allow instability to increase across areas near the Oregon border, introducing a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for Lassen and northern Washoe counties on Sunday afternoon into the evening. Modest PWAT near 0.70 inches promotes a threat for brief heavy rainfall, while sufficient instability supports the risk for lightning, gusty outflows, and small hail. A strong ridge off the west coast nudges the trough eastward and out of our region as it begins to move inland on Monday. This ridge is expected to strengthen as it settles over the western US through the end of the week, indicating a steady warming trend back to well above average temperatures is on the way. This is looking like the most significant heat wave of the summer so far, with blended guidance indicating temperatures may meet or exceed the century mark from Wednesday into the end of next week. If your 4th of July holiday plans take you outside during this period, plan now for the heat! Widespread Moderate and localized High HeatRisk is expected, which poses an elevated risk for heat illness. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities to the coolest part of the day, and check in on vulnerable family and friends. Whitlam && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all regional terminals through the weekend. Expect generally light afternoon breezes and clear skies this afternoon. Enhanced westerly winds develop this weekend, with widespread gusts 20-25 kts. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$