Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
786 FXUS65 KREV 162005 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 105 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Well-below average temperatures for today, with widespread rain showers and high elevation snow possible through the night. * Another fall-like storm brings continued below average temperatures and additional precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday. * A warming and drying trend arrives just in time for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Regional infrared satellite this morning reveals a center of circulation over the Sacramento area, which is providing showers with embedded thunder and high-elevation snow this afternoon. Early morning snow levels hovered near 7,500-8,000 feet, but are expected to steadily climb during the day. As for the current showers at the time of this writing, the majority are over Mineral, Churchill and Pershing counties. Some showers are appearing near far southern Mono County and far northern Washoe County as the showers pivot around the broad circulation. The heavier showers are expected to continue over the Basin and Range early this afternoon, with convective showers expected to filter in later today over the Sierra and leeside valleys. For Sierra passes such as Ebbetts/Sonora/Tioga tonight into Tuesday morning, there is a 60-90% chance to accumulate at least an inch of snow above 7,500-8,000 feet. The greatest snow amounts are expected on the ridges west of June Lake and just south of Tioga Pass, where 4-8 inches of snow is not out of the question. After a wet and cool evening and overnight, we will begin to see the system exit eastward early Tuesday, only to be followed by yet another system. The next system will originate from near the Aleutian Islands as an open wave and is expected to form a closed circulation off the coast of Oregon. A hint of subtropical warmth and moisture appears to influence this system as it arrives to our area. This storm has appeared to slow in recent ensemble guidance, and along with the influence from the subtropical intrusion, will be a slight bit wetter than our current system. The focal point for the most precipitation will be south of US-50 this time, so if your area misses out on precipitation with the first system, you may be in luck with this next round. Showers and isolated thunderstorms begin Wednesday with emphasis near the Hwy 50 corridor, then shifts slowly south into Mono-Mineral counties Thursday. This time around we will be looking for Sierra snow to impact areas mainly above 9,000 feet. This may again impact Ebbetts, Sonora and Tioga passes. Some beneficial moisture is defintely in the cards along the eastern Sierra with the official forecast showing a solid 0.25-0.50" with a 40-60% chance of exceeding 0.50". We have cooled Thursday`s highs 50% toward the NBM 10th-percentile to account for the extensive clouds and precipitation. This system will exit by early Friday AM, with some lingering light showers over the Basin and Range. We will also see a return of seasonal average temperatures and clearing skies, especially for the weekend. Longer range outlooks suggest the warming and drying trend are here to stay into the end of September. HRICH && .AVIATION... * Showers with embedded lightning and thunder are over the western Nevada Basin and Range early this afternoon, with more showers filling in across the Sierra and western NV as convection increases through this evening. Near active showers and storms, terrain obscurement and MVFR conditions are expected. Winds will be westerly with gusts to 25 kts possible over KRNO/KNFL/KCXP through this evening. Chance of a storm at any of the terminals is around 10-20%. * Snow showers are anticipated to impact Sierra ridges tonight, bringing some icing concerns to the region overnight into early Tuesday morning. While there should be little to no accumulation of snow at KMMH, snow may mix into rain showers in the vicinity, above 9,000 feet. * Westerly winds will increase tonight into Tuesday, with ridge gusts of 30-40 kts possible. Showers will exit Tuesday, with another system arriving Wednesday-Thursday. Probabilities are increasing (greater than 70% chance) for widespread MVFR conditions along the eastern Sierra (Tahoe/Reno southward to Mammoth Lakes) as latest scenarios indicated widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$