Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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633 FXUS65 KRIW 192027 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 227 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today begins the warming trend, which will persist into the weekend. The first triple-digit temps of the season are possible Sunday and Monday. - A wetter plume will push into WY beginning Thursday afternoon, with best chances for precipitation occurring Friday afternoon. - Hot and dry weather will occur through the weekend and into the early part of next week with low confidence in any relief coming. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 We remain cooler than normal today as cloud cover across much of the region has limited warming. The warmth will return though, with temps climbing to much above normal values by the weekend. We may even see our first triple-digits across portions of the Bighorn Basin Sunday and Monday. The Basin/Greybull to Lovell area is the most likely to see 100+ temps (50 - 60% chance) Sunday and Monday. Temperatures look to moderate slightly after Tuesday, but extended range model solutions are not showing any strong indications of a longwave trough or moisture plume that would bring much in the way of relief from the heat. Before we really start to bake and dry out this weekend, we will have one last chance for some moisture with a push of Gulf moisture beginning Thursday evening. Today, the moisture flow will generally be to our east, though there is a 20 chance that some isolated showers could develop along Casper Mountain or perhaps the southern Bighorns later this afternoon. The trough to our west will regress westward tomorrow and even further east for Friday, allowing widely scattered shower activity to spread into the region. Best chances for precipitation will come Friday. Best wetting rain (>0.1 in.) chances will be east of the Divide, particularly off the lee of the Winds, Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Shower chances continue through Friday evening, then taper off after sunset. Then Saturday, the ridge begins to build and the real warmup begins. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24-30 hours over western and central Wyoming. High clouds continue to stream from SW to NE over much of the area today, with some mid-level cumulus starting to form during the late morning over southern WY as well as the northwest WY mountains. Some moderate cumulus with light showers is expected to develop late this afternoon over Casper Mountain and the northern Absarokas, potentially pushing some gusty winds into KCPR and KCOD, respectively. Winds will remain light to breezy through the afternoon, though some sites may see gusts to 20 kts. Winds decrease overnight with continued mid- and high-level clouds mainly over the central and eastern parts of the state, and some sites like KRKS and KCPR should see some east winds. Clouds increase Thursday over the area as shower possibilities slightly increase over the central and northern WY mountains during the mid to late afternoon. Afternoon SW winds should be gusty at KRKS with east winds increasing from KCPR to KRIW/KLND. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSUs ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hensley AVIATION...McDonald