263
FXUS65 KRIW 220800
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly fall-like temperatures this morning with areas of frost possible
  in some locations.

- Seasonable and quiet conditions to start the week.

- Warm and dry conditions prevail through the remainder of the
  week with near record high temperatures possible Wednesday-
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The first day of autumn begins today and temperatures across the
Cowboy State this morning will definitely feel like it. Light winds
and clearing skies have lead to cooling across the CWA, with many
areas possibly seeing their first frost of the season this morning.
Temperatures this morning will be in the mid to upper 30s east of
the Divide with a few locations seeing temperatures flirt with the
freezing mark. West of the Divide will see temperatures in the low
30s and mid to upper 20s in parts of the Upper Green River Basin and
YNP. High temperatures today will be seasonable with values in the
upper 60s west of the Divide and low to mid 70s east of the Divide.

Quiet weather is likely to prevail throughout the upcoming week as
an area of ridging builds across much of the Western CONUS. Before
this ridging moves in a weak shortwave looks to move across northern
portions of Montana and North Dakota. Models show this disturbance
remaining too far north and the only impacts being breezy winds
during the afternoon on Monday. Tuesday sees the ridging move in
with quiet and dry weather likely to prevail through the remainder
of the week. Temperatures are forecast to warm up with above normal
values expected for the second half of the week. Some models are
showing high temperatures Wednesday-Friday reaching the mid to even
upper 80s east of the Divide. Based off current forecasted highs
some locations east of the Divide may be within a few degrees of
record high values. Ridging looks to persist across the region well
into next weekend keeping any disturbances well to the north of the
area. Unless models begin to shift, conditions are looking warm and
dry as we near the end of September.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period. High
clouds from the upper low over the Four Corners will remain in
place over the southern half of the forecast area through about
16Z. SKC skies will then be in place through the rest of the
day, before another band of clouds moves over northern portions
toward the end of the TAF period. A cold front will be pushing
south from MT Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will be
light (11kt or less) through the period as well, starting
easterly initially. Winds at KRKS and KCPR will turn more
westerly and southwesterly through the afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...LaVoie