Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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280 FXUS61 KRLX 140604 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 204 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry tonight. Chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday with a cold front. An extended stretch of hot weather will begin late this weekend through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1110 PM Thursday... Tweaked overnight temperatures a degree or two lower across most of the CWA. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog is expected to develop overnight across the central/southern portion of the CWA. Additionally, a few showers across portions of SE OH cannot entirely be ruled out later tonight from weakening upstream convection, but any activity would be quite isolated and light. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 510 PM Thursday... Made minor tweaks to cloud cover throughout the evening, but otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Diurnal Cu field is currently most robust along the spine of the northern mountains with anabatic convergence, but given significant dry air in the low-levels, the chance of squeezing out an isolated light shower is quite low. Given such, have removed the mention of isolated showers/storms from all of the higher terrain for the rest of the evening. As of 130 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure slides east, keeping warm and dry weather conditions tonight. Wind aloft increases from the southwest, pumping moist and warm air into the area with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s ahead of a cold front. This cold front will encounter an environment with CAPE about 1800 J/Kg, deep layered shear (about 25 knots southern two thirds of the area), higher across the northern sections (45-50 knots), and SRH about 100 m2/s2. PWATs should reach 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Equilibrium levels about 35kft, dry mid level air, and skinny CAPE sounding signatures suggest strongest storms could produce moderate to heavy downpours and strong to damaging winds Friday afternoon and evening. SPC has outlooked the northern areas under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat. Muggy tonight, with lows in the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s higher elevations. Patchy fog possible over most protected river valleys during the predawn hours. Despite of abundant clouds and cooling showers, highs on Friday are expected to reach the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1209 PM Thursday... In a post-frontal airmass Saturday, summerlike warmth will coincide with a comfortable feel. Dew points will be in the 40s to 50s Saturday with air temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. This will give us a brief reprieve from the humidity. As an upper- level ridge expands over the eastern 1/3 of the country Sunday, temperatures will be on the rise and dew points will return to the 60s for most. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday with largely dry conditions. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1209 PM Thursday... The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen over the East heading into the new work week, which means the summerlike warmth and humidity will continue through most of next week. There is also the potential for a heat wave. Something to keep in mind is that CRW has not officially hit 90 degrees yet, and while there is a high likelihood that could occur next week, there still remains some uncertainty. Models are undecided in the placement of the upper- level ridge axis; the GFS predicts the ridge axis will be a little farther east than the ECMWF. The strength and duration of the heat will highly depend on the location of the ridge axis; if it ends up being farther east like the GFS is showing, we could have more clouds with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. This would also lead to slightly lower temperatures over our region. While we continue to wait for models to come into better agreement, it is still important to prepare for the heat. There is a high potential for most of next week to be excessively hot, especially Monday through Thursday. It may be a good idea to stock up on water and other hydration fluids before the heat arrives, and make sure to put other heat safety tips into practice by taking frequent breaks in the air conditioning and checking on sensitive groups. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 AM Friday... Some clouds are encroaching from the northwest, but most areas southeast of the Ohio River remain cloud free for now. Calm winds and VFR conditions are noted areawide and any showers over ILN`s area seem to be dissipating before making it into our CWA. Some river valley fog will be possible between now and early Friday morning, but likely more patchy than previous nights, and none has formed as of TAF time, at least that is picked up on satellite. As a cold front pushes down from the north and northwest this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA. However, coverage is questionable so POPs are generally kept on the lower side for the time being, and was not included as prevailing weather in any TAFs. Outside of any t-storms, winds should remain on the lighter side - generally SW-W`ly ahead of the front, and N`ly once it pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium due to uncertainty on fog extent and timing tonight, and timing/coverage of t-storms tomorrow. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing tonight may differ from the forecast. Thunderstorms could wind up a bit more widespread than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/14/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible with valley fog on Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/GW/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...FK