787
FXUS61 KRLX 210752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
352 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The first day of Autumn opens up with a cold front that may
produce a few afternoon showers along the mountains. Drying out
for the remainder of the weekend, growing unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

The first day of Autumn opens up with temperatures more
applicable with Summer, as many spots in the Tri-State area will
once again reach the low 90s. The culprit warm front
responsible for these unseasonably warm forecast highs will sail
northward this morning to make room for an encroaching
disturbance.

A weak cold front will zip through the forecast area today,
with contributions from a shortwave trough that will encourage
showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain this
afternoon. A narrow ribbon from New York down to Virginia was
placed in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, scraping a
few of our northeast WV counties. Main concerns with stronger
storms later today will be gusty winds and hail.

A dose of measurable rainfall will also be feasible with
activity today, but will be limited to only a few tenths of an
inch for the mountains and foothills of West Virginia.
Certainly not enough to put a dent in the historic drought
underway in the forecast area.

The front will vacate the region by late this evening, with
lingering showers wrapping up around sunset. A decent signal
for river valley fog in the wake of the frontal passage will be
present overnight into Sunday morning. This will be especially
true for areas that receive precipitation today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Mid-level ridging is situated across the region on Sunday
leading to one last hot and dry day for awhile. While the wind
will not be strong, given the heat, drought, and low RH in the
30% range, elevated fire weather is likely during the afternoon.

The mid-level ridge flattens and shifts east on Monday with a
warm front lifting north through the region. This will result in
a significant increase in moisture and showers/storms will
overspread the area through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Confidence in the forecast is high into Thursday morning as a
cold front moves through the region bringing showers/storms.
While rainfall amounts do not look significant, widespread
beneficial rains appear increasingly likely. GEFS plumes cluster
most locales across the CWA in the 0.4" to 1.6" range, which
align well with WPC QPF that continues to trend upward. Some
localized areas could see higher amounts, but probability really
drops off around 2".

As we move into late week, confidence in the forecast lowers
drastically. There are a number of varying solutions as the
models become messy, with the GFS currently an outlier.
Different solutions vary from a stalled upper level low across
the MS/OH valleys, to a large upper level low developing off the
eastern Seaboard. This has major implications on the forecast
between dry/wet weather. Even with the differences, there is at
least some confidence that we are headed toward a wetter and
more unsettled pattern. This increased confidence or lean to
wetter conditions is picked up in the CPC 6-10 day showing
increased chances of above average precip.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

Pockets of FEW to SCT mid-level clouds will mitigate river
valley fog from seeping away from the mountains overnight.
Therefore, continue to portray a similar tale to the previous
forecast with only EKN having the potential for IFR vsbys
through early Saturday morning.

A weak cold front passes through the area on Saturday, bringing
a broken deck of clouds and the chance for mountain
showers/storms in the afternoon. Airfields should remain VFR
during this timeframe, but VCSH/VCTS was included for sites
close to forecast POPs for this afternoon and evening.

In the wake of the front, better potential for fog to ooze down
into the lowlands will transpire. This will be especially true
for areas that receive rain.

Calm winds overnight will shift out of the west/northwest for
the second half of the day Saturday in response to FROPA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Sunday morning with river valley fog in
some of the higher valleys around the area.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MEK