804
FXUS61 KRLX 230445
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1245 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today, with the
front crossing tonight. More seasonable air can be expected
behind the front on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Unseasonably warm air will continue today, but not as hot as the
past week. An approaching cold front will allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms today. SPC has
outlooked the region with a chance of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. With a freezing level of 15000 to 16000
feet, thinking that the main threat will be wind. With decent
low level shear and helicity values, central Ohio and
northwestern West Virginia even have a small chance of tornados.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The severe threat ahead of the cold front tapers Sunday night
with the loss of heating after sunset. However, there could
still be a strong to marginally severe wind threat as
thunderstorms move into and through the mountains, especially
if they are able to organize into lines or line segments amid
modest 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30 knots.

The heavy rainfall threat also wanes Sunday night, as mid level
drying crashes PW values even ahead of the actual surface
frontal passage.

High pressure builds into the area Monday afternoon and will
provide a clear, calm and comfortably cool night Monday night.
With the rain 24 hours earlier, fog is likely to form overnight,
at least in the valleys.

Central guidance temperatures reflect the end of the heat wave,
with highs down near normal on Monday. Lows Monday morning
will be perceptibly lower across northwest portions of the
forecast area, slightly lower southeast, compared with Sunday
morning. Lows Tuesday morning will be noticeably lower than
recent nights throughout the area, and a bit lower in the
valleys compared with central guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day
Tuesday.

With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat
wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week,
west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave
troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to
southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding
increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and
then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a
cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night,
and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building
heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a
dry end to the week.

Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and
Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the
building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are
lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little
above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and
Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around
60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the
balance of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions can be expected early this morning. An
approaching cold front will then allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop late this morning and into this
afternoon. Generally VFR conditions can be expected outside of
the precipitation.

A cold front will then swing through tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again cause restrictions along and ahead
of the front. Behind the front, some MVFR ceilings are possible
in the western upslope region of the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High early this morning, then medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some fog might form in the deeper mountain
river valleys early this morning. Timing and intensity of
showers and thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 06/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY