Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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984 FXUS61 KRLX 300642 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 242 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid, with strong, heavy storms possible into Sunday. A cold front brings an end to threat Sunday evening. Dry to start the week, becoming hot again Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley around 8 AM this morning to encounter a very juicy and unstable environment with SB CAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg, PWATs around 2 inches and deep layered shear from 25 to 40 knots. Latest Hi-res CAMS suggest additional showers and thunderstorms will develop under this environment during the predawn hours as the front arrives. Any thunderstorm that manage to develop will produce heavy downpours capable to produce minor localized water issues along their path. In addition, strong gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. SPC has outlooked most of the area under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, except for SE OH where general thunderstorms exist. The cold front will move slowly east with convective elements ahead of the front continuing into the afternoon hours when heating becomes part of the equation. The cold front finally exits southeast of the Appalachians by 9 PM Sunday with precipitation gradually tapering off from west to east behind the front. Warm temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 80s lowlands, into the lower 70s higher elevations. Behind the front, a broad surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes providing northerly flow and much fresher airmass to the area Sunday evening. Lows are expected to be in the mid to lower 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM Saturday... The beginning of the new calendar month opens up with pleasant weather in the wake of the weekend frontal passage. A brief reprieve from the overbearing temperatures and dry weather will arrive in the form of high pressure spreading over the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs are progged to only reach the upper 70s in the central lowlands and the 60s along the mountains. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... Upper level ridging will continue to support dry weather on Tuesday, with temperatures returning to seasonable for this time of year.Pressure height rises will translate into a rise in temperatures beginning on Tuesday and heading into highs extending into the 90s across the lower elevations. The ridge begins to flatten and sink down into the southern half of the country on the 4th of July, making way for a frontal boundary and its associated line of showers and storms. Models remain on track with this boundary struggling to surpass the forecast area on Thursday, becoming stationary over the area for the end of the week. Maintained central guidance chance to likely POPs for this timeframe, and held onto convection even during the overnight hours due to the persnickety front hanging about during the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 143 AM Sunday... Radar imagery shows the bulk of convection associated with a passing short wave, exiting the eastern mountains overnight. However, the atmosphere remains very juicy and unstable, and convection may develop overnight into early Sunday morning ahead of an arriving cold front. Therefore, showers and storms are expected to continue across the area through Sunday as the front advance southeast, finally exiting the eastern mountains by 00Z Monday. Any thunderstorm tonight into Sunday can produce strong wind gusts, and brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR stratocumulus develops before dawn Sunday. This stratocu will gradually lift and break up from west to east Sunday afternoon. Light south to southwest surface flow tonight, except strong and gusty from the southwest to northwest in thunderstorms, will become light west behind the prefrontal wind shift Sunday morning, and then light northwest behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed for lower flight category within storms or heavy rain. IFR ceilings are possible along the mountains Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/30/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L H L H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in stratus, at least in and near the mountains, overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...ARJ