478
FXUS61 KRLX 260104
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
904 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week
in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and
a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 PM Wednesday...

Increased PoPs across our south and southeast to account for
ongoing widespread precipitation. Lowered PoPs across the
northwest portion of our area to account for the dry slot.
Otherwise forecast remains on track.

As of 1226 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Flood Watch in effect for southwest VA and McDowell Co. in WV
   until Thursday evening.

A frontal boundary, oriented north to south, remains stationary just
west of the area tonight, before becoming diffused on Thursday.
Meanwhile, ripples of vorticity, associated with deepening upper
level low, will continue to provide necessary forcing to
maintain showers and thunderstorms going tonight into Thursday.
PWATs values about two standard deviation from the mean,
coupled with deep layered shear 45 to 50 knots should promote
showers and strong thunderstorms capable to produce very heavy
downpours. Hi-res CAMs suggest another batch of convection
affecting southern WV, southwest VA this evening, and continuing
with lighter rainfall during the overnight hours. These areas
have been hit by repetitive showers during the last 24 hours,
and additional rainfall may result in flooding problems.
Therefore, will issue a Flood Watch for these areas starting
this afternoon through Thursday evening.

Abundant moisture and cloudiness will keep lows in the mid 60s
across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.
The cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Thursday high
temperatures in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 213 PM Wednesday...

Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the
remnants of Helene move onshore and northward towards the region,
eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across
Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Main track of the low still looking
to be just to our west. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to
rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some
beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains and
southern zones. In addition, strong gusty winds will develop, owing
to tight pressure gradient and strong winds aloft, particularly
along ridges. Heaviest QPF will be across the mountains and far
southern zones, with parts of WV lowlands looking to
potentially suffer from downslope effects/lighter QPF. Could
foresee wind and water headlines across far south with future
packages.

Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage Friday evening
into the first part of Saturday as Helene becomes absorbed into
upper low across Lower MS Valley, and rotates northwest of the area
briefly. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again
later Saturday into Sunday as the low slowly drifts east across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low
continues to depart eastward, followed by a front on Tuesday. Cooler
and drier weather looks to take hold by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Mixed bag this evening and overnight tonight as rain persists
causing MVFR and IFR conditions across the area. For the rest of the
evening, mostly MVFR and scattered IFR conditions are expected with
mainly MVFR across the lowlands with a better chance for persistent
IFR conditions across the mountains into the overnight and early
morning hours. Any thunderstorm or heavier shower could briefly
reduce visibility to IFR/LIFR conditions. Higher chances for
thunderstorms/heavier showers near KBKW and KEKN into tonight.

Forecast confidence on an hour by hour basis for visibility and
ceilings is low given poor model handling of current conditions and
transient nature of thunderstorms/heavier showers moving near TAF
sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of showers and
thunderstorms may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 09/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    L    M    M    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in
showers and storms throughout the week and into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ033.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...28/RPY/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...28/RPY